We're down to the pointy end of the group stage at the T20 World Cup, and things are getting interesting in Australia's Group 1.
With one game left Australia, England and New Zealand are level on five points, with Sri Lanka on four and Ireland another point further back.
Since there are only two semi-finals spots available for the group, this means there could be a fair bit of advanced mathematics involved in sorting out who advances.
The final round sees a double-header at Adelaide Oval on Friday, with Ireland taking on New Zealand in the afternoon before Australia plays Afghanistan.
The group will come to a conclusion with England facing Sri Lanka at the SCG on Saturday night.
Here's how the group looks now:
The key column in this table is the net run rate (RR).
Ever since the opening game of the group, when New Zealand put 200 on the board against Australia at the SCG and then skittled the hosts for 111 in 17.3 overs, Aaron Finch's side has been battling to get back to a position of strength.
Then matters weren't helped when the home side's game against England at the MCG was washed out without a ball being bowled.
By the time they played Ireland, the Australians had to win by a whopping 75 runs to get ahead of England on net run rate.
But a rearguard action by Lorcan Tucker and the Irish tail reduced Australia's winning margin to 42, leaving the current state of affairs.
New Zealand's net run rate is now a very healthy 2.233. England is still positive but only 0.547, while Australia sits on -0.304.
If New Zealand beats Ireland
Given Ireland vs New Zealand is the first game to be played, Australia will have some knowledge of what they need to do before they walk on to Adelaide Oval.
If New Zealand wins, the Black Caps are almost certainly through, given their advantage on net run rate.
This would leave just one spot to be decided between England, Australia, Sri Lanka and Ireland.
Even the barest of victories would leave Australia needing to have a near-record win by more than 150 runs to pass New Zealand, while England would need to win by close to 100. The required margins would go up the bigger New Zealand's win.
Assuming Kane Williamson's team has booked a place in the last four, this puts the pressure back on Australia, England and Sri Lanka.
Given Australia trails England by less now than they did before the Ireland game, they would need to win by a net 50 runs or so. For example, if Australia beats Afghanistan by 80 runs, England would need to win by less than 30 for the home side to go through.
If Australia loses to Afghanistan, then whoever wins between England and Sri Lanka will go through.
If Ireland beats New Zealand
If the Irish can cause an upset, they will throw the group wide open again.
Unless Ireland wins by an absolutely huge margin, they won't be able to qualify because they will still only be on five points with an inferior net run rate to New Zealand (currently -1.544).
Even if they did, they would still need Afghanistan to beat Australia. If the home side won by any margin, it would go through.
Given England is also on five points and Sri Lanka on four, the final game of the group would be a straight eliminator, with the winner going to seven or six points respectively.
Unless Afghanistan managed to beat the hosts in Adelaide, the Black Caps would be heading home.
If one or more games are washed out:
At this point the forecast for Adelaide on Friday is partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower, so conditions should be good to go.
- If there is a surprise cloudburst, and the New Zealand game cannot go ahead, then the Black Caps will go to six points, leaving the door open for Australia and England to advance with wins.
Sri Lanka would need to absolutely trounce England to have a chance of getting past New Zealand's net run rate.
- If the Australian game is also rained out, then the home side would be a high chance of missing out. Their run rate would remain inferior to New Zealand and England, and the English would move past them with a win.
If Sri Lanka beats the English instead, they would most likely qualify over Australia as long as it is not a really narrow win.
The forecast for Saturday in Sydney looks good for now too.
- If all three games were rained out, then things would stay as they are, with New Zealand qualifying first and England second.
The bottom line is that we won't know the final state of the group until Saturday night after England vs Sri Lanka, and calculators will be optional, but definitely recommended for everyone watching all three games.
