In the Netherlands, in Argentina — even in New Zealand — once sensibly moderate parties are suddenly, eagerly following their voters as they hurry across the red lines that once barred the centrists from working with the racist far-right.
There could be worse to come: the surging support for Germany’s right-wing party, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), and for Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in France, is putting pressure on the the traditional centre-right parties in those countries to start thinking about making a deal with the anti-immigrant right. Media are following along behind, interpreting electoral support as journalistic legitimation.
It’s Trumpism gone global. Across the world, fringe views have gone mainstream — particularly on migration — as, country by country, the once unsayable becomes commonplace.
In the Netherlands, the centre-right coalition led by the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) for the past decade collapsed over immigration policy debates that would be familiar to Australians: greater restrictions on family reunions and a new sort of temporary protection arrangements for asylum seekers. (In another rhyming with Australia, the government had also been exposed for a robodebt-style misapplication of algorithms to track social security payments dubbed the “toeslagenaffaire,” or childcare benefits scandal.)
Geert Wilders, leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV), grabbed the opening, saying: “We are the party that can ensure a majority to significantly restrict the flow of asylum seekers.”
The mid-campaign decision by the VVD to nod at working with the controversial anti-Islamic Wilders was taken as a green light by the centre-right’s once loyal voters. The far-right party topped the polls, largely off a fall in the VVD votes. Wilders is now negotiating his own coalition.
It’s a repeat of the experience in last year’s Swedish elections. Once the centre-right Moderates winkingly endorsed the far-right Swedish Democrats, their voters followed on, making the Democrats the largest party on the now-governing right which promises a “paradigm shift” in its approach to migration.
In Germany, the centre-right Christian Democrats have, so far at least, resisted the temptation of joining forces with the rising AfD. But for how long? It was relatively easy when the hard-right was centred in what was once East Germany. Then, last month, the right-wing party surged to second place in the very West German — developed, educated — states of Hesse and Bavaria which, between them, have about a quarter of Germany’s current population.
Leading news magazine Der Spiegel doesn’t want to take any chances, saying an increasingly radicalised AfD should be banned as a threat to the constitution. On the far left, there’s an emerging “culturally conservative” splinter that seems to think “if you can’t beat ’em …”
The far right’s crusade against immigration — particularly non-European migration — trumps economics with cultural politics. The population of just about every European country is in long-term structural decline as deaths outstrip births, while emigration outweighs immigration in central Europe and in most regional areas. In Hungary, for example, after trading on a decade of anti-immigrant rhetoric, the Orbán government is having to bring in “guest workers”, mainly Indian, to meet labour shortages.
Some on the left see an opportunity in the rising populist right. In Spain — with its own not-so-dim memories of fascism — Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez used the threat of the far-right Vox joining the People’s Party in government to block a right-wing majority in midyear elections. It was a close-run thing: it was only last month that he was able to negotiate a working majority in the parliament out of the various left and regional parties.
Argentina’s centre-left Peronists hoped to pull off a similar win In the second round of the presidential elections, after self-professed pro-Trump “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei became the surprise alternative, pushing the centre-right into third place. Milei’s promises to slash spending and taxes (particularly social welfare) and his commitment to restrict abortion and liberalise guns convinced the centre-right’s voters to shift to him.
New Zealand conservatives, the Nationals, are relying on the economically libertarian ACT Party and the populist, nationalist New Zealand First to deliver a parliamentary majority after the defeat of the Labor government in October. The coalition has made global waves with its own anarcho-capitalist play: to dump tobacco restrictions and use the money from the expected increase in cigarette sales to fund income tax cuts.
Next year, elections in the world’s two biggest democracies — India and the US — look set to be structured around the same sort of nasty racial and religious populist rhetoric as this year’s elections.
The centre-left is at a loss. You’d think by now one of the parties would have worked out an effective response to the right’s effective anti-immigrant play. But maybe there just isn’t a playbook that works from the left. Certainly, Labor in Australia seems to think the best bet is to act tough to push back the wedge and quickly change the subject.
