As Middle East crisis grows, does Iran have control of its proxy forces?

Armed Houthi supporters stand near paintings depicting (L-R) the slain Iranian Gen Qassem Suleimani, Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and the Houthis’ political council head Mahdi al-Mashat on a street in Sana’a, Yemen. Photograph: Yahya Arhab/EPA

The dramatic first week of 2024 has tipped the scale towards those who say the daily diet of drone strikes, assassinations and maritime assaults will at some point combust into a major war across the Middle East.

But the likelihood of a regional conflagration turns on the unclear intentions of Iran and the contested degree of control it exercises over the numerous linked but autonomous groups it has nurtured over the past decade in five sovereign countries.