When Mark Drakeford’s wife, Clare, died suddenly at the end of January, Glamorgan Cricket Club posted a photo of the couple sitting together in one of the stands, watching their team in action. The photo says a great deal about the Drakefords – a modest, unassuming couple who were, by all accounts, deeply devoted to each other. It also helps explain why Wales’s first minister has decided to announce his departure now, when he could easily have chosen to stay on until after the next UK general election, even if that meant remaining in post for another year.
Bereavement has hit Drakeford hard. While dedicated aides and officials have worked tirelessly to support him, and even political enemies have offered succour, high-profile public office offers little space or respite for those consumed by intense private grief. There is no suggestion that the first minister has remained anything other than diligent and dutiful – his ability to read and digest every paper presented to him has long been the subject of awed admiration among Welsh government civil servants – yet he can hardly be blamed for being ready for a period out of the limelight.
He will depart the stage as easily the most high-profile devolved politician that Wales has known. Though the late Rhodri Morgan was more naturally charismatic, the pandemic ensured that Drakeford gained a prominence far beyond that enjoyed by his former mentor and friend. Moreover, if this was the “wrong crisis” for Boris Johnson’s “skill set”, the opposite was the case for Drakeford. His calm, methodical, detail-oriented approach may have enraged Conservative critics, but it proved hugely popular among the Welsh public at large. By the time of the devolved election in May 2021, the first minister was being treated as more celebrity than politician as he canvassed for his party’s candidates. And this, it must be said, was somewhat to his own bemusement.
There is no doubt that this popularity waned during 2023 – indeed, in the most recent polling, more than half the electorate (56%) say that he’s doing a bad job, compared with just under a third (31%) who think he’s doing well. The Welsh government’s decision to move to a default 20mph speed limit in residential areas has proven particularly controversial. So controversial, in fact, that the issue appears to have become a lightning rod for all kinds of wider anti-politics and anti-government resentments. It has certainly hurt the first minister’s reputation, and made something of dent in Labour’s polling numbers.
But the extent of the damage should not be exaggerated. Following the 2019 general election, when the Conservatives secured their highest ever vote share (36%) in Wales, in 2021 Labour won a handsome victory, and its prospects for the forthcoming UK general election are very positive. Normal service has been resumed. Which in Wales means that Labour is about to win big.
Drakeford’s party have at least two more reasons to thank him for the legacy he will now leave it. The first minister has ensured that each of the three politicians regarded as possible successors – Vaughan Gething, Jeremy Miles and Eluned Morgan – have extensive experience in high-pressure ministerial roles. This, even though none of them shares his identification with the party’s left.
When Welsh Labour chooses between them, it will be therefore be choosing between known quantities with records to be defended and compared. Drakeford takes the business of government seriously, and he expects and trusts his party to do the same.
Secondly, by working together with Plaid Cymru to secure the expansion of the Senedd to 96 members (from 60), Drakeford has taken responsibility for dealing with the most politically toxic element of a reform process that over a 20-year period has created a fully fledged Welsh parliament.
He is unlikely to receive much by way of thanks for having invested his hard-won political capital in this. There is never a popular argument for more politicians. The opposition Welsh Conservatives have certainly made hay on the issue. This, even as their own party has propelled ever more supporters into an already bloated House of Lords.
Nonetheless, it has long been recognised that the Welsh legislature is too small, and once the change has been secured, the matter will not need to be revisited. As such, the first minister will have played a central role in ensuring that future Welsh governments are better scrutinised.
Wales has been fortunate in its first minister. Drakeford’s seriousness of purpose, humanity and – yes – vulnerability, will be sorely missed.
Richard Wyn Jones is director of the Wales Governance Centre and dean of public affairs at Cardiff University
