A federal election, due on or before May 21, could be called as early as next weekend, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison hoping to start the campaign with a post-budget wind in his sails.
But there’s still a big problem for both parties — several preselections in key seats remain unresolved. Factional infighting has caused the Liberals serious damage in New South Wales, while Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket is still not finalised, after the untimely death of Kimberley Kitching.
This week, both parties took strides toward sorting things out. The Liberals have picked former McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy as their man in John Howard’s old seat of Bennelong (margin 6.9%). Kennedy founded the blue-chip consulting firm’s public sector practice, and boasts of having advised prime ministers, premiers and presidents.
Meanwhile Labor has turned to its own clever white consulting guy with a good CV in Parramatta (margin 3.5%). Former Rudd advisor Andrew Charlton — whose preselection has angered local branch members in the diverse Western Sydney marginal seat — is set to be locked in by the federal executive in coming days.
Still, a last pick isn’t a barrier to winning. In 2019, Fiona Martin was parachuted into the suburban Sydney marginal seat of Reid just over a month out from the polls, and won.
NSW Libs in trouble
Despite their success in Reid last time, the Liberals are losing ground by delaying in key electorates. The state, widely viewed as central to Morrison’s re-election strategy, is the site of a factional feud that leaves behind both internal bitterness, legal bills and vacancies in crucial seats. In Hughes, held by Liberal defector Craig Kelly, a dispute over whether to preselect Alex Dore (another management consultant), who lives on the distant north shore, has led to an impasse. The Liberals still don’t have a candidate for Eden-Monaro, held by Labor on a 0.8% margin.
The government has all but conceded Tony Abbott’s former Liberal stronghold of Warringah to independent Zali Steggall — they’ve reopened preselections a third time because the only nominated candidate, Lincoln Parker, isn’t seen as desirable to the state executive.
Things aren’t much better in Western Sydney, where the government once hoped to peel seats off Labor. Labor’s divisions in Parramatta could give the Liberals an opportunity, except there’s still no candidate locked in. Local businesswoman Maria Kovacic is likely to get the nod. In Greenway, where Labor’s margin is just 2.8%, the Liberals are yet to sort things out, although banker Pradeep Pathi seems to be the only name going around.
After much internecine brawling, the NSW Liberals did resolve to save Trent Zimmerman, Immigration Minister Alex Hawke and Environment Minister Sussan Ley from difficult preselection battles. Kind of. Matt Camenzuli, the hard-right factional heavy behind a lot of the shit-stirring, has launched another legal action, this time to over the federal executive’s temporary intervention to save the sitting MPs, which names Morrison as a defendant.
While attention focuses on lower house candidates, the Liberals haven’t resolved their NSW Senate ticket either. That’s set to change this weekend, with a battle for the third spot on the ticket between two sitting senators, Jim Molan and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, and Liberal Women’s Council head Mary-Lou Jarvis.
Over in Queensland, the LNP still doesn’t have a candidate for Lilley, the most marginal seat in the state (Labor 0.6%) after army veteran Ryan Shaw withdrew, citing mental health reasons.
Labor’s Victoria problem
Labor has a few of its own preselection headaches, centred on arcane factional drama in Victoria that got all the more tense after Kitching’s death.
The late senator faced questions about her future and attempts to unseat her — right now. Jana Stewart, a Muthi Muthi and Wamba Wamba woman, looks to have support from dominant Labor right factions — those associated with the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Alliance (SDA) and the Transport Workers Union. It means Kitching’s former allies aligned with the Health Workers Union are likely to lose out on the key spot.
Meanwhile, Kim Carr, a veteran of the Victorian left, is also likely to lose out, with Linda White of the Australian Services Union set to replace him. Carr’s loss, after nearly 30 years in Parliament, is big. He is a long-term power player, and it points to an erosion of support for the senator among key left subfactions.
There’s still no confirmed replacement for Anthony Byrne in his safe seat of Holt. Names in the mix include SDA’s Cassandra Fernando, emergency doctor Stephen Parnis, and the United Workers’ Union’s Jo Briskey, as factions fight it out.
Simmering in the background is widespread anger over the federal executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch in the aftermath of a branch-stacking scandal. That’s being challenged in the High Court by Earl Setches of the Plumbing Trades Employees Union, with first hearings likely today. If successful, all Victorian Labor preselections could be overturned.
That would dial up the chaos to a level the opposition simply doesn’t need.
