Bad news – and some less bad news – for Britain’s new-ish prime minister. First, the bad news: the high priest of psephology, Professor Sir John Curtice, believes the “Burnham bounce” lasted only two weeks; polling numbers, albeit somewhat disparate, corroborate his conclusion, and the mere fact that Andy Burnham isn’t Sir Keir Starmer has not been enough to propel Labour into a commanding lead over their current nearest rivals Reform UK – even after a challenging summer for Nigel Farage.
Even at Sir Keir’s personal zenith in the general election of 2024, the British people were never that enamoured of him or Labour, winning on a mere 32 per cent vote share. After a series of often unforced errors, both party and prime minister explored unprecedented depths of public dissatisfaction. When the historic electoral losses breached even Labour’s pain barrier last May, it was the end of Sir Keir’s premiership. Performing merely “a bit better” than his predecessor doesn’t make Mr Burnham the new electoral messiah, as the prime minister himself has jokingly acknowledged.
