Zoltan Poszar's Predicted Commodities Disruptions
One of the points Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Poszar made in his "Breton Woods III" note last month was that in the wake of the war in Ukraine and the Western sanctions on Russia in response to it, commodities markets were becoming disrupted. Russia is the nearest supplier of natural gas, oil, and other commodities to much of Europe, and to the extent that Europe eschews Russian supplies, Europe would have to get its supplies from further afield. Similarly, Russia would have to ship its oil further away (to Asia), and much of the infrastructure required to completely rearrange pre-war trading patterns simply doesn't exist yet.
