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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Daniel Harris

Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City: Carabao Cup final – as it happened

Manchester City's Nico O'Reilly celebrates scoring their first goal.
Manchester City's Nico O'Reilly celebrates scoring their first goal. Photograph: Paul Childs/Action Images/Reuters

Righto, David Hytner’s match report is with us, likewise or player ratings.

That being the case, we’re done here, so thanks all for your company and comments – sorry I couldn’t use them all. Enjoy the rest of the weekend and peace out.

It’s hard to know who was at fault for that Arsenal performance, Arteta or his players. I mean, the answer is obviously both, but did he send them out to play so conservatively, or did the occasion get to them? They have to get more men into the box when attacking in open play and trust their centre-backs to defend one on one.

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It’s also worth noting how Guardiola celebrated the goals. All the old aggression came out and, for the first time in a while, he didn’t look like he was ready to turn it in.

It was very noticeable how City’s trophy rookies – O’Reilly, Khusanov, Semenyo, Cherki – excelled today, while Arsenal shrunk. The sides meet in the league in the next game but one, and if Guardiola’s men can win at Chelsea then take the points in that one, they’ll start to feel inevitable.

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“Very chilled and relaxed, just another game for me,” Semenyo tells Sky. He reckons they knew if they followed the game plan they’d win, and he likes playing out wide. He had Hincapie “running around” a bit, noting that once the defender was booked, he was backing off, which allowed him to get into the box. And there’s a lot more to come, he warns.

For most of his teammates, it’s just another trophy, but it’s a really special one for him, and now they have confidence going for the title.

“Your criticism of Declan Rice is a little harsh,” reckons Tony Mason. “City are a top side and with the incredibly slow build up that Arsenal played, no doubt encouraged by Arteta, meant that it was nigh on impossible for Rice to move things quickly between defence and attack. I don’t think he did much wrong. I’d be looking more towards Trossard and Saka.”

I’d expected to see him charging about making tackles, but think you’ve hit on the things I find most problematic about his game: he’s brilliant in big spaces, but in small ones , whether taking the ball off the defenders under pressure, or around the box looking to pick a route to goal, he’s limited. I don’t think that’s so of the best players, though I really admire the work he’s done on his dead-ball delivery to to mitigate these failings. I agree, though, that Saka was poor, and I’d probably have gone for Martinelli ahead of Trossard, but there are few teams below Arsenal in the league with far better wide options than them.

“With you re Pep’s trousers,” advises Dave Estherby, “but at least they appear to fit; Arteta’s get shorter by the game, is he shrinking? Might explain Arsenal today...”

He does have very little trousers, like he’s been dressed by his mum. He’s got some serious self-reflection to do this evening.

There will, of course, be questions about whether Arteta was right to play Kepa. I guess it’s quite hard to keep an understudy happy unless they’re given these kinds of games, and had he not made the error for the first City goal, his team would still probably have lot. Other hand, Arsenal badly needed the win today, and were hamstring by a call their manager made voluntarily.

I’ve been really impressed with Khusanov recently, and he was good again today. His speed is sensational but his on-ball work and readsng of the game have really come on in the last year.

“I won’t claim to be brilliant tactically,” says Alexander Whitney, “but what I’ve been seeing since August at least is that Arsenal have assembled arguably the deepest squad in the league, then over a few months Arteta has not rotated all that much, taught us not to play, and tried to win most matches 1-0 (City, for example, were blatantly there for the taking in the beginning of the season, but we couldn’t be bothered.) Apparently his takeaway from throwing away the league in ‘23 and ‘24 was that we should grind things out and be less attacking. A horrible set of blindspots.”

Desperation to win often results in a negative mindset, an attitude that, presumably, also motivated the purchase of Gyokeres who was felt to be at his peak, as opposed to younger but better option. Arteta is a terrific out-of-possession coach, but his team move the ball too slowly and don’t get sufficient numbers forward.

Arsenal stand there watching City cavort. Arteta will doubtless tell them to remember this feeling – no fears there – but he’s got a lot of work to do, not so much because of the result as losing a final to this team is hardly a shock, but because of how poorly they presented. Does he have the charisma and authority to heal them?

Bernardo Silva takes the three-handled trophy and hoists it high!

City bob and jump, then pass it down the line. Will they manage any others this season?

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Arsenal climb the stairs to collect their runners-up medals. There are some haunted faces among them, with good reason – they’ll be feeling shame and guilt, frustration and fear, some of the very worst emotions, the pain set to accompany them through the next fortnight. We all know how it works – you wake up, have a second or two before you remember what’s eating you, then it’s right there, stalking you through the day.

Trafford says he made big saves but can’t really remember them as things happened quite quickly. This moment means a lot to him and when they beat Spurs a few years ago he was fourth or fifth choice and he felt he’d win the trophy a few years ago. All his family and friends are there – he starts listing their names, thinking he’s been asked who, not how many, which is a nice moment. He thinks his performance is testament to his resilience – it’s not been an easy season with Donnarumma signed to go in front of him, but his performance shows how good the people he has around him are.

I know Declan Rice is a fantastic player, but what we saw – or didn’t see – from him today is why I rank him just below the top tier. He didn’t affect the match at all, the superior craft of the City midfielders too much for a player who is too heavily reliant on physicality.

O’Reilly is pretty calm, considering he’s achieved all of our dreams. His whole family have come down from Manchester and he’s a bit bewildered by it. He grew up playing in midfield so has always timed runs into the box, and now he can’t wait to go up and get the trophy.

Once upon a time, winning this pot was a routine thing for City, but they’re celebrating this one with gusto – it’s been a while, a few of these players haven’t won anything with City until now and they all know the impact it might have on the seasons of both these teams.

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FULL TIME: Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City

An ultimately comprehensive win for City, with potentially seismic repercussions. Manchester City are League Cup winners again!

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90+4 min City’s name is etched into the League Cup for the ninth time.

90+2 min Gary Neville names O’Reilly player of the match, and rightly so. His enterprise in popping up on the goalline and at the back post is, in a sense, the contest in microcosm, City the more creative side with Arsenal struggling to achieve anything beyond the formulaic.

90+1 min We see a replay of the Jesus header and it turns out it hit the bar – Trafford didn’t make the save. Nevertheless, he’s been solid, his save from Havertz in the first half one of the key moments of the match.

90 min Foden replaces Cherki; we’ll have four additional minutes.

90 min Doku takes the ball in centrefield, no one anywhere near him. So he bounces off towards goal, lashing a low shot just wide.

88 min Arsenal are trying now, though, a cross to the back post finding Jesus leaping and looping, Trafford doing well to claw it away from under the bar. The difference between his and Kepa’s performance has more or less settled this final.

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86 min Carrying this result into the international break will sting for Arsenal, who don’t play again in the league until 11 April. Their collective no-show today is hard to understand – they’ve not been flattened by a classic Guardiola performance, they’ve just not found the vim to deliver their best stuff.

85 min “With all this Dylanology swirling about the MBM today,” says Justin Kavanagh, “I have just one comment about watching Arsenal this season: I really think it’s past time that Arteta went electric.”

Judas! (Assuming George Graham is in the ground).

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83 min It’ll be O’Reilly who gets the headlines and rightly so, but the pattern of the game has been set by Semenyo and Doku. I also think this is the best I’ve seen Rodri play since his return from injury – he and Bernardo haven’t been amazing, but their passing and positional intelligence have enabled them to control this game from about 30 minutes in.

82 min Two more changes for Arsenal: Jesus and Martinelli for Trossard and White. Rice moves to right-back, which is surprising – I’d thought they’d go three at the back given they need to score twice in eight or so minutes.

80 min Can results be reversed for unacceptable trouser-shoe combos?

78 min A cross from the right arrives at Calafori, who shoots low and Trossard flings himself at it on the slide, feathering a touch … into the base of the post. Arsenal are building a bit of pressure, but City immediately take heat out of the game by keeping possession.

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77 min “That Dylan parallel is so superb I wish the author nothing but joy forever, writes Mike Morris. “It’s already made sense of my feelings about Eric Cantona, who I always thought deeply flawed (poor discipline, always giving the ball away, didn’t score enough) and even overrated - albeit exactly what that United team needed in 1992. I get it now - playing around his idiosyncratic genius, limitations and all, transformed that side from a skilled but stodgy attacking outfit into a team that attacked with a speed and cutting edge that had never really been seen before. Admittedly, ‘Cantona was good’ is a realisation I really should have been able to make on my own.”

Context matters, but every football team needs a bit of maverick.

76 min Arteta has got better at spinning reverses into positivity, but this one is going to really test the new him. He’ll be raging inside because his team just haven’t turned up today; they’ve played without confidence and conviction, their inability to raise it with a trophy on the line, a feeling that’ll linger until they show they can.

75 min “Peak ponytail/man bun era was Bielsa period Leeds,” offers Jeremy Boyce. “Ayling, Phillips, Harrison, Tyler, Robert ... there may have been more.”

73 min For what feels like the first time today, the cross is good, Calafiori is up, he makes good contact … but heads straight at Trrafford.

72 min Arsenal are, though, looking to play through midfield, Saka now behind Gyokeres, who’s been quiet. Madueke looks to inject pace, tearing infield, and when he’s fouled, Rice can tease in a free-kick, 25 yards out, right of centre.

70 min Arsenal just haven’t got going today. City look like a side used to winning finals, taking more risks with their positioning and in possession. They’ve now swapped Doku and Semenyo, and look more likely to score another than concede a livener.

68 min Cherki juggles with the ball on the touchline, Nani-style – that’s confidence and perhaps foolishness – so White rattles him as son as possible and is booked. On the touchline, Guardiola shakes his head – he won’t like that.

66 min Arsenal send on Calafiori and Madueke for Hincapie and Havertz.

GOAL! Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City (O'Reilly 64)

Oh my goodness me! Nico O’Reilly, a 21-year-old left back, has scored twice in a final that may soon bear his name, and this game feels over! City work the ball really well, Doku pilfering space down the left before bringing it inside and feeding Nunes down the right, who measures a a cross to the far post, where O’Reilly gets a run on Saka to bob a header into the net. He is feeling feelings, and it’s moving to watch him celebrate, youthfulness and joy personified.

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62 min Arteta needs to act. If he can’t change the flow of the game, City may well score again and, as I type, Calafiori and Madueke strip.

GOAL! Arsenal 0-1 Manchester City (O'Reilly 60)

It’s been coming, and I’m afraid the source of the goal isn’t that surprising. Bernardo finds Cherki, who crosses and, at the near post, Kepa makes a complete hash of a regulation leaping catch. The ball bounces loose, a few feet off the line, and O’Reilly is quicker to it than Zubimendi, nipping in front to duck into a low header and put City ahead.

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58 min Haaland runs at Saliba like a fairy elephant; he’s easily read and unloaded. His finishing is so deft and definitive, I’m sure he can get better at other aspects of his game, but he looks like pretty much the same player he was when he joined.

57 min Again, Semenyo runs at Hincapie, who backs off, so the attacker shifts it left to open up a shooting lane before, from the edge, his low effort curls just wide. When was the last time a team had four players – Semenyo, Doku, Ake, Haaland – with ponytails?

55 min lovely feet from Bernardo, beating a couple of men just outside the box and finding Doku, whose flighted cross looks Haaland-boucd, but a defender, Hincapie I think, is up early to intervene.

54 min City continue in the ascendancy, Doku sending a low cross whizzing across the box with no one available to attack it. Arsenal are sitting back waiting for a counter or a set-piece; I'd expect them to make a change soon.

52 min Semenyo sends the free-kick miles from anywhere.

50 min Rice and Saka haven’t delivered their crosses as well as they usually do, the former taking this latest corner, which City clear, then a long diag finds Doku racing away. In what looks like a panic, Kepa charges out of his area, Doku bundles past him, and is yanked back; the ref blows when he might’ve let play continue a second or two, booking the Arsenal keeper.

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49 mi Semenyo digs out a cross beyond the back post, then City retrieve possession with Cherki sliding into Semenyo, who lays off for Haaland. But, under pressure, he can’t quite poke his shot early enough, then Arsenal race down the other and win a corner that ought to have been a goalkick.

48 min “Sorry to be the cold water poured but, considering the available talent of both these squads, they are surely the most boring teams in the league,” reckons Dean Kinsella. “I saw Bob the last time he played Dublin and most of the material used was from Rough and Rowdy Ways. It’s the best album he has made for two decades and the crowd were really into it (including Shane McGowan in the front row). This roused Bob into performing the best I’ve seen him since Blackbushe way back in the mists of time. Rave on Mr Dylan.”

46 min No changes to either side, but I doubt it’ll be long before we see some. In the meantime, City are again dominating territory, Arsenal a little more proactive in rushing them.

46 min We go again…

Back come our teams. I doubt either is especially happy with their first-half performance, but City look closer to opening the game up.

I don’t think Havertz in midfield is working all that well. If I was Arteta which, for avoidance of doubt, I’m not, I’d be thinking about moving Saka into midfield and getting Madueke on.

Half-time email: “I saw Bob Dylan in concert last fall,” says Kári Tulinius. “To say that his voice is shot is an understatement, and his piano playing is rudimentary. His musicians had to keep his eye on him at all times, because he’d stretch and twist his songs. They mostly played tracks off Rough and Rowdy Ways, because they’re written to suit his current vocal abilities. But within those constraints, they put on a fantastic show. Though it’s more pronounced now, that’s always been the case with Dylan, musicians have to contort themselves to fit him, and that drove them to new heights. Arsenal lack a Bob Dylan. The best sides in history all had some sui generis talent whose outsized gifts were accompanied by limitations, and so needed his team mates to adjust their game. Bergkamp was that figure the last time Arsenal won the title, such an odd player they had to invent a new term just for him, ‘shadow striker’.”

I’m not sure Bergkamp was the first deep-lying striker – and where on earth would he play in this era of 4-3-3? – but agree, you see Bob, he plays a good minute or so of a song you think you don’t know, then realise it’s a peculiar interpretation of one you’ve loved for decades. At this point, it’s not about whether he’s any good, but being in same space as him, knowing that every time might be the last time.

HALF-TIME: Arsenal 0-0 Manchester City

Arsenal started the better, Trafford’s save from Havertz the closest we’ve come to a goal, but City were the superior side in the final 25 minutes, without crafting a clear-cut chance. It’s engrossing, but the quality is not legendary.

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45 min We’ll have one additional minute.

45 min Bernardo finds Semenyo on the right of the box and again, he pauses, then barges down the side, leaving Rice trailing before standing up a cross to the back post … and Haaland’s up! But, though White and Saliba can’t get close to him in the air, their leaps and proximity are enough to force him into heading wide.

44 min Arsenal clear the corner, then block a Doku shot, but City have them hemmed in, sustaining attacks with the box ringfenced. This is what Guardiola wants the game to look like and it was a feature of Alex Ferguson’s teams too, but Arsenal back themselves to defend the box.

43 min But Haaland drops deep to get on the ball – that is not a misprint – and when Cherki finds him with a decent pass, punched through the lines, City win a corner.

41 min There’s not much going on here.

39 min “Per your point ‘if he’d bought either of [Ekitike/Sesko] and they’d stayed fit’,” says Mark Childs, “I think that’s the main strength of Arsenal’s transfer approach. It no longer seems like a crisis if Odegaard/Saka/Rice/Havertz picks up an injury: they now have a strong enough squad and a rotation system that presumably reduces injuries, then provides cover for any missing players. As a United fan who has had to watch the randomness of our transfer approach, I can only admire Arsenal’s decision to pick a strategy and stick with it.”

I think they’d be pretty stuck without Rice, and the only reason they might be fine without Saka is he’s having a relatively poor season. If you go through the list of Premier League champions, you’ll see that almost all of them have elite attackers, and though I’m not saying Arsenal can’t win the title without them, it’d be an outlier. I also think Arteta has played his key men a lot for someone who has such a deep squad – the away game against Inter, for example.

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38 min The corner is easily cleared; so far, City are dealing with Arsenal’s dead-ball threat pretty comfortably, though it only takes one to change everything.

37 min Saka rolls the ball down the line, hoping to draw a tackle from O’Reilly, who stays patient before blocking the cross; corner to Arsenal. There’ll now be a 17-minute break as the players position themselves then wrestle each other.

35 min Arsenal are doubling and tripling up on Doku, who Arteta must see as City’s main threat. I don’t know if that’s leaving Hincapie isolated against Semenyo, but it can’t be helping; I’d be interested to see the two wingers swap occasionally, which might unbalance Arsenal’s defensive plan.

33 min But Arsenal sustain the attack, Gabriel flicking on a long ball and Gyokeres is in! He wants too long, though, so Ake, who was caught out initially, gets back at him to make a leaping tackle. So far, this is extremely poor fare.

31 min Calafiori is on the touchline stretching, which may or may not be because Arteta is contemplating a change. Gyokeres and Khusanov then pursue a long ball, the latter ploughing through the former and earning a yellow card for his trouble. He didn’t leave anything out of that challenge, and Rice will now laser in another free-kick, headed clear by Nunes.

29 min The corner comes to nothing, then Bernardo avoids a card for a shove. He’s perhaps the most articulate snide in the league - and what a player.

28 min City are now dominating possession, though without threatening. Semenyo looks to have Hincapie and, as I type, he he slows him down, feints the cross, and nashes away on the outside, his cross blocked behind for a corner. I’d not be surprised to see Calafiori on at half-time.

25 min “To be fair, I don’t think it was as clear then as it is now that Ekitike was the liveliest of the Ekitike/Sesko/Gyökeres mid-price strikers,” says Julia Riches. “Personally, I wish we had bought Kvaratskhelia in the 2025 January window. What I am really glad of is that we didn’t sell Martinelli and Trossard, who have been immense and undersung for us this season.”

I disagree with that – Gyokeres was clearly the least talented of the three. Perhaps Arteta wanted that profile as an option, but if he’d bought either of the other two and they’d stayed fit, Arsenal would be in a better position than they are.

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23 min City look to attack down the left touchline, Arteta dancing down it to get out of the way. He’s trying much harder to affect calm this season, but his constant proximity to the action bespeaks his real state of mind. At some point, I’d not be surprised if he properly gets in the way of an opposition attack – Gareth Bale could never have done this against Arsenal.

21 min I’ve not seen many, if any defender with recovery-pace that compares to Khusanov. We see it here, as he slides in on Havertz, and if the rest of his game matures, he has the raw materials to become a very serious centre-back.

20 min Excellent from Semenyo, who isolates Hincapie and throws a lollipop inside before dashing outside, hammering over a cross that pleads to be finished … but a flying Haaland can’t quite introduce brow to ball.

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19 min Saka spins Cherki adroitly, in the process raking studs down heel; he’ll be fine, but we’ve barely seen him in the game thus far.

18 min Arsenal win another free-kick, maybe 35 yards out, out on the right, so the big men go forward and Rice prepares to fizz over a outswinger like he’s Jonny Wilkinson … and Haaland heads clear.

16 min Hincapie leaps into a tackle, lands without making contact with Khusanov, then makes contact with Khusanov, studs to foot, and is booked – I imagine for the first part, though it caused no damage.

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15 min “I’m an Arsenal fan,” says Nathan Brown, “and I also thought Arsenal needed a couple of definitive attackers this going into the start of the season. A lot of us were disappointed and underwhelmed by raising the floor of the squad but not the ceiling. You’re basically describing Liverpool’s summer transfer policy - buying Isak, Ekitike and Wirtz. However the depth has come in handy at times over the season and now we go into the last batch of games with a full squad most of whom have had a decent volume of game-time. Seems like the results speak for themselves.”

I’m not sure about that. Liverpool didn’t strengthen where they were weak, and Isak has barelyt been fit. Had Arsenal bought Ekitike, they’d be further ahead, in mine.

13 min Flat, to the near post … and headed away. Saka can do much better than that, but Arsenal win a throw deep inside the City half, Rice to hurl in … and again, City clear.

11 min O’Reilly naively fouls Saka in the inside-right channel, 30 yards from goal, meaning Rice can now swerve in a free-kick … which O’Reilly heads away. But Arsenal have them boxed and Bernardo can’t prevent the ball going behind for a corner, Saka to take it.

10 min Now City probe, Bernardo and Rodri on the ball just outside the box. The latter digs out a cross seeking Haaland, who’s put himself on Saliba – perhaps to avoid the more powerful Gabriel – but the defender does enough.

9 min “Look at those subs’ benches, writes Chris in Corfu. “Any one of those subs would walk into virtually any Premier League team.”

These are two very well supported managers. Arsenal, I think, lack a bit of transcendental quality, while City aren’t sure what they’re trying to be.

7 min I’s Arsenal making the early running and Rice pokes a pass across the face of the box to Zubimendi, playing further forward as we thought he might. Instantly, he turns around the corner and in behind, lovely vision and weight! Havertz is in! But he takes a millisecond too long, so Trafford gets out and up in his coupon to block the low shot, then saves again when Saka hits the follow-up. That’s excellent keeping.

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5 min White lofts down the line and into space, Ake nervously waving a foot at it and missing. That allows Gyokeres to power into the channel, exactly the thing he does best, but when he reaches the line, his cut-back is intercepted.

3 min We see Eze sat on the bench and he looks pretty nauseous. He’s worked so hard to learn Arteta’s pressing system and adapt to playing in a team looking to dominate rather than counter, so to have this reward taken away from him must feel grim. Arsenal will miss him, I think.

2 min City move the ball along the back four, looking to draw Arsenal on to them so they can spring, but it’s all a bit tight and messy so far, a ball in behind finding Gyokeres offside.

1 min Arsenal immediately press City high, defenders backing up attackers by jumping. City, on the other hand, are sitting off a little.

1 min Away we go!

I can’t help but think if Arsenal had spent the money they’ve used on various good players on one or two brilliant attackers, the title would already be theirs. I know a major reason they’re doing so well is their squad depth, but it’s rare a champion side is as prosaic going forward.

There are soldiers knocking abut the pitch, I’ve not a clue why; this is a football match, not a war. Anthem time.

How did we appraise import in football matches before they invented those flame things?

Our teams are tunnelled, which means it’s time for a succession of curiously staccato sentences of varying sense from Peter Drury. And here they come!

There are plenty of gaps in the City end and I’m not surprised. I guess some will fill up before kick-off, but the expense of travelling and paying into Wembley makes it difficult for fans.

I’m really looking forward to this game. As a contest, I’m not sure it’ll be pretty, but that’s not what brings any of us here really – what football gives us that nothing else can is its special brand of competitive, emotional intensity, and this is that and then some. The players will be feeling the weight.

Forest have won 3-0 at Spurs; it’s looking grim in N17, but West Ham’s defeat at Villa keeps them a point above the relegation zone, while Forest are now three above it.

Arteta says Eze is injured, then explains that he fully trusts Kepa, and that’s it.

Guardiola tells Sky that Dias felt something against Madrid and isn’t ready for today. I was getting to the keepers – both teams are sticking with their reserves – and he trusts James Trafford. Then, laughing, he notes that he’s selected the tallest team he could because who isn’t concerned about Arsenal’s set-pieces?

City, meanwhile, will want Doku to dart low crosses across the face of goal for Haaland and Semenyo – who’ll also be looking to complete those long carries, so many of which end with a shot and often a goal. He’ll feel he can get by Hincapie and down the side of Gabriel.

Cherki, meanwhile, will want to get on the ball and fire those low shots with much disguise and little backlift, as well and slipping passes down the sides of defenders for Haaland. He’s clever enough to elude Zubimendi, but may leave his side light on midfield numbers as he seeks to create crucial moments.

So, where is the game? Arsenal will want to get Bukayo Saka running at Nico O’Reilly. Though Timber’s superior defending has seem him usurp White, White is the better attacker and his relationship with Saka was a principal feature in the early years of the Arteta revival.

Otherwise, I’d expect to see Rice rampaging into tackles, after loose balls and in the channels – neither Bernardo nor Rodri have the legs to cover the width of the pitch, and I’d not be surprised to see Martin Zubimendi picking up spaces around the edge of the box. I’m not, though, sure what we’ll see from Havertz, who doesn’t play in midfield all that much these days. When he came through at Leverkusen, his soft feet and imagination on the ball shone through; Arsenal will hope he can conjure them space, and that he continues burnishing his impressive big-game record.

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“Oh Lord, Daniel, the nostalgia!” begins Charles Antaki. “Too many guitars on stage, of course, but who (of a certain age) can resist the appeal of that lineup; soon to become hopelessly old-farty, cranky or dead, to be sure, but still just about alive. Happy, or happy-ish, days, before Dylan’s singing became completely incomprehensible, and popular music took a very different turn. It’s a museum piece, of course, but even museum pieces can get the old heart going and the foot tapping.”

The anticipatory noise the crowd makes when Dylan comes on stage is one of my favourites – and, now I come to think about it, reminds me of this League Cup final sound when the ball goes wide to Ander Herrera and everyone knows that if he puts his cross into the right place, Zlatan Ibrahimovic will do the rest.

Can Arsenal win the quadruple? It seems unlikely because it always is, and not much about this team suggests they’re good enough to do something beyond the greatest we’ve seen. On the other hand, the draws in Europe and the FA Cup have been kind, so they won’t have to win as many difficult matches as would ordinarily be the case and they are so diffocult to beat.

At Tottenham, Forest now lead 2-0; at Villa Park, Villa now lead West Ham 2-0.

Physically, the edge is with Arsenal, especially in midfield. Rodri may never recapture the power and pace which made him one of the best in his position, while Bernardo never it. They’ll look to control the tempo of the game and have the passing and smarts to do it, but it’s a tricky endeavour with Declan Rice charging about.

Guardiola, on the other hand, is still tinkering. In midweek, he left out Semenyo, presumably because it’s hard to carry two players – him and Erling Haaland – who don’t contribute loads apart from goals. He’ll hope that in Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku, he has enough creativity, and he may well be right – the former is a one-off who’ll be certain he can make this match all about him, while I really like how the latter has come on in the last few months. He’s so hard to read, and is making very good decisions; one on one against White, I fancy him.

Back to the teams, Arsenal’s looks more settled. They’re without a couple of regulars, but play according to the same principles in pretty much every game. They lack magic, especially in the absence of Eze, but of the two teams, they have the higher bottom level; chances are, they’ll defend properly whatever happens, so will take some beating.

Email! “I just cannot see Arsenal winning other than on penalties,” says Graham Fulcher. “No one is going to want to score the winning goal for them and then miss the Premier League run-in as a result. The last time someone scored a League Cup-winning goal for Arsenal they were dropped immediately afterwards…”

Goodness, that was a very long time ago. I was so much older then, I’m younger than that now.

City, meanwhile, are without the injured Ruben Dias; Nathan Ake comes in. Otherwise, Antoine Semenyo returns, with Tijjani Reijnders dropping to the bench.

The headline news for Arsenal is that Eberechi Eze isn’t in the squad – presumably he’s injured – which is a particular shame for him, given how long it’s taken him to fully integrate, and for us, because he’s an artist with big-game pedigree. His spot goes to Kai Havertz, while at right-back, Ben White is in for the also-injured Jurrien Timber, and on the left, Pedro Hincapie is preferred to Riccardo Calafiori. Otherwise, Viktor Gyokeres continues up front, and on the left it’s Leandro Trossard not Gabriel Martinelli.

We’ll dig into those shortly, but before we do, join Rob Smyth for the second half of Spurs 0-1 Forest, probably the most important game played so far this season.

Teams!

Arsenal (4-3-3): Kepa; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard. Subs: Raya, Mosquera, Jesus, Martinelli, Norgaard, Madueke, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly, Dowman.

Manchester City (4-3-3): Trafford; Nunes, Khusanov, Ake, O’Reilly; Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Cherki; Semenyo, Haaland, Doku. Subs: Donnarumma, Reijnders, Stones, Marmoush, Kovacic, Nico, Ait-Nouri, Savinho, Foden.

Referee: Peter Bankes (Lancashire)

Preamble

Humanity’s search for meaning is a struggle 300,000 years in the making, a succession of theories and experiments unable to fix on a reason or explanation for the lunacy that is life. We find patterns and seek stories to get nowhere, everything we are – thoughts, memories, feelings – bafflingly contained in a quivering lump of fat, water, protein, carbohydrates and salt. The reality – that we’re little more than sentient custard – is so discombobulating, it’s barely any consolation that we are, at least, seasoned.

The match we’re about to enjoy tests all of that, so full of so many potential interpretations it makes the head spin. Arsenal, without a trophy since the Covid Cup Final of 2020 and without a league title in more than two decades, desperately need to prove to themselves that they can win – all the more so given their opponents are also their rivals for that elusive pot. Should they triumph today, their nine-point advantage at the top of the table will seem insurmountable, whereas if they lose, City’s game in hand and home fixture against them might weigh heavy.

Words like “seem” and “might”, though, remind us that all this is conjecture. We indulge in it because we’ve no choice but it’s entirely feasible Arsenal lift the trophy today and win nothing else, just as it is that they lose today and win everything else, each extreme feasible and so too everything in between.

And that’s just them. City arrive at Wembley having lost their last two finals and just been knocked out of the Champions League in a peculiar tie against Real Madrid – one in which they played some excellent football yet never fully convinced, losing both legs for a multitude of good reasons. For the first time in a generation, there’s a sense that football has run away from Pep Guardiola, the brain that shaped what it looks like in the modern era no longer able to fully fathom it, never mind control its processes and outcomes. He looks tired, frustrated and maybe a little bored, his future uncertain; this could be his last season in his current job, or he may find a way to balance the competing forces of the physical and the technical, of power and possession, then go on to build yet another great team. Each extreme is feasible, so too everything in between; this is going to be something.

Kick-off: 4.30pm GMT

Updated

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