For Arsenal to be crowned 2022/23 Premier League champions, they are relying on Manchester City dropping at least five points.
Although, that's only one half of the equation as it's important to note that Mikel Arteta's side have to take care of things from their end if they're to stop this period of dominance on the blue half from Manchester from continuing, hence why this afternoon's clash against Newcastle United is massive.
It's been a rough past month for the Gunners in terms of results and that's despite losing just once in their last 12 games. But it's the 4-1 defeat at the hands of Man City coupled with three consecutive draws against Liverpool, West Ham United and Southampton that has seen them cede control of the title race.
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And with Pep Guardiola's side showing very little sign of feeling any pressure, the Arsenal manager admits it's up to his players to keep asking questions in the hope of a twist: "This is more down to the players. I don't know how they're thinking," the Spaniard said in his pre-match press conference. "We try to win every game and do the same and see what happens."
Aside from City's form, what may concern Arteta ahead of the Newcastle game is the 2-0 defeat in the corresponding fixture at a similar stage last season where a top-four finish was at stake and the fact his side hasn't managed to breach the Magpies' defence in the last two games.
To not score in a third successive fixture against Newcastle will further dent the Gunners' chances of winning the Premier League trophy and, in truth, it would take some effort to leave St James' Park with all three points given Liverpool are the only team to have achieved this particular feat so far this season.
Having said that, football.london has taken a look at every possible outcome from the huge game and what the state of the title race could be at around 6.30pm on Sunday afternoon.
ARSENAL WIN
If Arsenal manage a victory at St James' Park, they'll be back to within a point of the defending champions at the top of the table, albeit having played a game more. However, this scenario will almost certainly guarantee the title race can't be decided until the final week of the season.
Furthermore, the Gunners would have the luxury of knowing that they can't finish any lower than second - their highest Premier League finish since 2015//2016 - as it would be impossible for them to drop below Newcastle or Manchester United even if both clubs were to win their remaining fixtures.
DRAW
If it ends all square on Tyneside, Man City would move one step closer to winning the Premier League trophy for a third year in a row. This is because the Gunners' maximum points total becomes 88 and given the goal difference situation, the Cityzens will effectively be crowned champions if they beat Everton and Chelsea.
But all hope wouldn't be lost for Arsenal. They would need to win their remaining three fixtures - against Brighton & Hove Albion, Nottingham Forest and Wolves though - and hope Paul Merson is right about Man City dropping points in order to be crowned champions.
In addition, a draw also ensures the north London outfit can finish no lower than second. Whilst being runners-up won't soften the blow of missing out on winning the title, the consolation could be around £41.8m in prize money if last season is anything go by.
NEWCASTLE WIN
Defeat for Arsenal at St James' Park leaves them four points behind the league leaders having played a game more and with an inferior goal difference to add more salt to the wound. This is ultimately the worst-case scenario for Arteta and company because Man City would require two more wins to be crowned champions.
As for sealing a top-two finish, the Gunners have the luxury of knowing one win from their final three games will get the job done.
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