1) Who has the easier run-in?
Arsenal. They are one point behind Chelsea with both sides having played 18 games but their remaining four fixtures are, on paper at least, more winnable than those of their rivals. Intriguingly, Tottenham will have a big say in the title race. While Chelsea play them on Sunday and then again on Thursday, the north London derby takes place on 4 May. Although Chelsea should win at Birmingham on 1 May, their tricky concluding home game of the campaign comes against a Manchester United side challenging Manchester City for third place – and the final Champions League slot.
Things seem more straightforward for Arsenal: after Sunday’s trip to Everton, they are home to Aston Villa and Spurs before visiting West Ham on the final day.
2) What form are they in?
Convincing. Chelsea are seeking a sixth straight WSL win on Sunday and Arsenal a fifth. League defeats are rare for both clubs: Arsenal have lost once all season, Chelsea are furious with themselves for suffering two. Perhaps significantly, one of those reverses came when they went down 3-2 at Arsenal in September. Chelsea exacted revenge this month by prevailing 2-0 in an FA Cup semi-final at their title rivals’ Borehamwood home.
3) Which manager has the greater title-winning nous?
Chelsea’s Emma Hayes, albeit only slightly. The 45-year-old manager has won the WSL four times with Chelsea, most recently last spring. Having succeeded Joe Montemurro at Arsenal last summer, Jonas Eidevall is experiencing his first season in England. Not that he is exactly a novice: the 39-year-old Swede won the Damallsvenskan three times during his time in charge of Rosengård. During her decade in west London Hayes has constantly refreshed her squad and evolved tactically. This season Chelsea have shifted from a 4-2-3-1 formation to 3-4-3 and become more focused on possession.
Hayes cut her coaching teeth in the US and her in-depth study of sports science-led conditioning techniques in Chicago, New York and Washington DC have served her well. Chelsea’s fitness programme is designed to ensure players gradually grow stronger as the season unfolds before hitting optimal shape and peak form in time for strong spring finishes.
Given that players tend to have reached only 60-70% of their maximum fitness levels in September it represents a slightly risky tactic but Hayes’s aversion to staging small-sided practice games during early-season training has helped minimise soft-tissue injuries.
Helpfully, Hayes’s assistant, the former Bristol City manager Tanya Oxtoby, is a qualified sports psychologist, and so far at least they have succeeded in preventing the uncertainty surrounding their club’s sale from exerting an emotional toll on the pitch.
In some ways, Eidevall has taken Arsenal in the opposite direction as he endeavours to end his club’s three-year trophy drought. They have become much more direct, creating more goals from wide areas than during Montemurro’s tenure and often play 4-4-2.
Bolstered by a quintet of key summer signings, Arsenal started the season in unstoppable form by winning their first six league matches but arguably drew too many games during a winter complicated by the two-month absence of their influential defender Leah Williamson, who injured a hamstring.
With their marquee summer signing, the US forward Tobin Heath, also often short of fitness and Nikita Parris struggling for form after signing from Lyon, their momentum slowed mid-season, allowing Chelsea to catch up.
4) Who are the key players?
Chelsea boast the WSL’s leading scorer in Australia’s Sam Kerr who is on 16 goals but Arsenal’s ever‑dangerous Vivianne Miedema is on 12. Beth Mead is enjoying an excellent campaign on the right wing and has scored eight times for Arsenal. They and Chelsea possess two of the league’s finest central defenders in Williamson and Millie Bright, with that pair integral to the teams’ respective title challenges.
5) Which players have been missing?
Hayes would be happier were England’s attacking playmaker Fran Kirby not sidelined by fatigue issues. Chelsea have attacking strength in depth, however, and her absence has at least offered Beth England a chance to remind everyone of the talent that led to her being named the PFA women’s player of the season two years ago. England has scored seven WSL goals, reinforcing her claims for a place in the Lionesses’s Euro 2022 squad.
Similarly, Eidevall had hoped the double World Cup-winner Heath would shine in Arsenal’s attack but injuries have restricted the 33-year‑old to a handful of starts during a frustrating campaign in which she is yet to complete a single 90 minutes. But the impact of Heath’s travails has been minimised by the arrival of Sweden’s Stina Blackstenius from BK Hacken in January and the subsequent formation of her menacing partnership with Miedema.
