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Tashan Deniran-Alleyne

Arsenal discover route to avoid nightmare Champions League draw - but Liverpool can change it

Arsenal could yet be affected by the outcome of this season's Premier League top-four race as well as the Champions League and Europa League finals.

And that's despite not being directly involved in any. But it's all in relation to the Gunners' rather disappointing experiences in Europe in recent years and the impact it's likely to have ahead of their return to the Champions League next season for the first time since 2017.

Simply put, failure to qualify for any European competition for the 2021/22 campaign and exiting the Europa League at the round of 16 stage at the hands of Sporting CP this term looks set to haunt Mikel Arteta's side as they are currently ranked 23rd in the UEFA coefficient table.

READ MORE: Saliba cover, next captain - Arsenal's best case scenario if Declan Rice and Moises Caicedo sign

With that in mind, coupled with how the draw works for the Champions League group stage, Arsenal's task of reaching the knockout phase come February 2024 is set to become a very difficult task especially as it looks likely they won't be able to wrestle the Premier League trophy from Manchester City.

As per UEFA.com, how the Champions League draw is conducted is as follows: 'The teams will be split into four seeding pots. Pot 1 will consist of the holders, the UEFA Europa League winners and the champions of the six highest-ranked nations who did not qualify via one of the 2022/23 continental titles; Pots 2 to 4 will be determined by the club coefficient rankings.'

So as it would take a remarkable sequence of results for the Gunners to come out on top in the title race, finishing second means they won't be in Pot 1 and there are no guarantees they'll be in Pot 2 either based on their coefficient ranking as they're below Man City, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester United, Juventus, Barcelona, AS Roma, Internazionale, Ajax, Borussia Dortmund, Sevilla, Atletico Madrid, RB Leipzig, Benfica, Villarreal, Napoli, Porto, Tottenham Hotspur and Eintracht Frankfurt.

Of those 22 teams, Chelsea and Tottenham definitely won't be playing Champions League football next season as a Premier League top-four finish is out of reach and the same applies to Frankfurt who currently sit eighth in the Bundesliga table, 13 points off a qualification spot with two games remaining.

If Ajax also fail to qualify - which could be the case - all of a sudden only 18 teams would be higher than Arsenal in the coefficients table ahead of the group stage draw with Napoli, Man City, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Benfica and Feyenoord set to be placed in either Pot 1 or Pot 2.

In fact, thanks to @adamvoge on Twitter, below is how the Champions League pots currently stand.

Now, the above table is based on a prediction that Roma win the Europa League and therefore would be placed into Pot 1 for next season's Champions League draw. But with Jose Mourinho's side unlikely to seal a top-four finish in Serie A, it would be ideal for Arsenal if Juventus won the competition over Sevilla and Bayer Leverkusen.

This is because Juve would replace Roma in Pot 1, leaving a space open for the Gunners to take - but only on the condition that Roma (10), Ajax (12), Sevilla (13) and Villarreal (18) don't qualify for the Champions League either through their domestic league finish or winning the Europa League.

However, this is where Liverpool could hand Arsenal a nightmare scenario. The Reds are very much alive in the Premier League top-four race following a 3-0 win over Leicester City on Monday night as they currently sit fifth just a point behind Newcastle United and Man United.

Jurgen Klopp's side are at a slight disadvantage having played a game more than their rivals but should they take advantage of any sli-up and finish the campaign no lower than fourth then they will be placed in Pot 2 for the Champions League draw based on their coefficient.

As a result, the Gunners will almost certainly be consigned to Pot 3 even if Juventus win the Europa League unless Newcastle seal a top-four finish ahead of Man United as Eddie Howe's side are set to take their place in Pot 4 should they qualify.

Of course, all of this would have been avoided if Arsenal managed to lift the Premier League trophy on May 28 then as champions of England - which is one of the six highest-ranked nations - they would have been placed into Pot 1 on their return to Europe's top table following a six-year absence from the competition.

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