Arm-based PCs won't rock the PC world in 2025, according to a recently published report by self-described tech intelligence experts, ABI Research. In a report outlining 101 tech trends that will – and won't – shape 2025, the analysts at ABI say they expect that "Arm-based PCs will represent only 13% of total PC shipments in 2025." This prediction might chill the hearts of companies like Qualcomm, and its investors, so let's take a closer look.
By the summer it seemed like we had been waiting for eons for the first Nuvia (Oryon) core-powered Arm processors to be released by Qualcomm for the PC market, and they were duly trotted out at Computex 2024. We also heard rather a lot of bluster and bravado regarding the expected fortunes of Arm PCs over the coming half-decade. Most notably, both the Arm CEO and Qualcomm CEO talked in public about Arm Windows PCs gaining a 50% market share within five years.
At release, the first Snapdragon X Elite and X Plus machines were propelled by featuring the first processors certified for Microsoft's Copilot+ PC program, and the stellar battery life offered by these laptops redefined untethered portability for Windows users. However, people weren't, and still aren't, impressed by Microsoft's Copilot+ misfire(s), and it only took a few months before the incumbent Intel and AMD Windows laptop rivals trotted out efficiency-tuned architectures to basically nullify the greatest selling point for Arm Windows PCs – battery life.
Is it any surprise, then, that ABI Research now thinks that there is limited potential for further Arm PC penetration in the coming year? The report highlights this is a pivotal year for the Arm PC platform, but it looks like it may be a dud.
ABI notes that as well as AMD and Intel spoiling the Arm PC dream, there has been disruptive legal squabbling between Arm's biggest players, especially regarding licensing and royalties. Last but not least, ABI doesn't see the x86 software advantage going away this year, either.
Though the laptop segment is the biggest target for Arm PC proponents, we reported on a very interesting Cinebench world record-setting 128-core Arm PC desktop tower yesterday.
Other ABI predictions for 2025
The full report from ABI touches on many other aspects of tech. We think readers might also be interested to hear that the analysts think AI PCs will become the new normal in 2025. Hopefully, moving local AI out of premium means there will be more reasons to own an AI PC, in a chicken-and-egg kind of fashion.
In other tech trend highlights, ABI predicts AI humanoids won't take over the world, semiconductor onshoring will still need several years to materialize as planned, and most people still won't want to wear smart glasses.
