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Dipanjan Banchur

Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting NRG Energy Stock Will Climb or Sink?

NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG), headquartered in Houston, Texas, is an energy and home services company that produces, sells, and delivers energy products and services to residential, industrial, and commercial consumers in the U.S. and Canada. Valued at $17.41 billion by market cap, the company serves more than 7.5 million customers by generating electricity and providing energy solutions and natural gas through its portfolio of retail brands.

Shares of this leading energy company have outperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. NRG has gained 149.4% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 24.5%. In 2024 alone, NRG stock is up 63.7%, surpassing SPX’s 9.8% rise on a YTD basis.

Zooming in further, NRG’s outperformance is even more pronounced compared to the S&P 500 Utilities Sector SPDR (XLU). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 10.6% over the past year. Moreover, NRG’s gains on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 12.8% returns over the same time frame.

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On May 8 and May 9, NRG shares rose 3.3% and 7.8%, respectively, after the company reported its Q1 results on May 7. The company’s adjusted earnings of $0.80 per share missed the Wall Street estimate of $0.92. 

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect NRG’s EPS to grow 40.7% to $6.08 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion. 

Among the eight analysts covering NRG stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on four “Strong Buy” ratings and four “Holds.” 

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This configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, with five suggesting a “Strong Buy.”

Recently, Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd maintained an “Equal-Weight” rating on NRG stock and raised the price target from $70 to $83, implying a potential downside of 1.9% from current levels. 

The mean price target of $81.38 represents a 3.9% downside from the current price levels, but the Street-high price target of $110 suggests an upside potential of 30%.

On the date of publication, Dipanjan Banchur did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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