Midterm Elections 2026: The 2026 midterm elections are less than six weeks off, and the most recent polling shows the Democrats in a favourable position in the race for control of Congress nationwide. Meanwhile, the Republicans are being asked to account for President Donald Trump's impact on closely contested congressional races.
The most recent figures don't show which party is going to control Congress after Election Day, but they do provide a snapshot of where voters currently stand as the campaign reaches its last weeks, as per a report by Delaware Online.
What do the most recent polls indicate?
According to the most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll, the Democrats are leading the Republicans by 12 points when it comes to the general congressional ballot.
Of the registered voters, 53% said they were more likely to back the Democratic congressional candidate than the Republican candidate, while 41% supported the Republican one. The Democrats also have a 25-point lead among independents.
The poll shows that 45% of voters regarded their congressional vote as mostly being against Trump, while 24% said that it had been mostly in favour of him. Of the independents, 54% stated that their vote had been primarily against the president. (Marist Poll)
In the Marist survey, Trump's job approval rating was under 40 per cent, which is another point that Republicans are keeping a close eye on.
RealClearPolling's average based on a generic congressional ballot also indicates that the Democrats are ahead nationally. In the most recent average, the Democrats were given 50.3% and the Republicans 42%, which represents an 8.3-point lead for the Democrats. (RealClearPolling)
What impact is Trump having on the midterms?
Trump now plays a central role in the discussions about the congressional campaign.
The Marist Poll shows that a greater number of voters say that their choice of a member of Congress was a vote against Trump rather than in favour of him, and Democrats also have an advantage on a number of issues, such as the economy, foreign policy and gas prices. (Marist Poll)
What worries Republicans is not that all competitive elections are turning in favour of the Democrats, but rather whether Trump's position among the voters could influence the Republican candidates in tightly fought races.
The Republicans still refer to the Senate map and the separate state races as explanations for why the results of the national polling do not give the full picture.
Might the Democrats gain control of Congress?
The House and the Senate are posing different challenges. At the moment the House looks more promising for the Democrats, whereas the Senate is still rather competitive. The Democrats would have to make only a small number of gains in order to take control of the House, while the Senate's district boundaries offer the Republicans another way of keeping at least partial control of Congress.
As Action Network has pointed out, the House forecasts tend to favor the Democrats, although the Senate situation is much more closely contested.
One possibility that is being considered before Election Day is a divided Congress.
What do the prediction markets indicate?
Prediction markets are also currently indicating that the Democrats will gain, although their figures can change quickly. The odds shown on Polymarket were 93% that the Democrats would win the House and 66% that they would take the Senate. The market also gave a 66% chance of a Democratic majority in both the House and the Senate, whereas it assigned an 8% chance to a Republican majority in both chambers.
Kalshi also gave a 91% chance of a Democratic victory in the House and a 64% chance of a Democratic win in the Senate.
They are the probabilities derived from the market, not the actual election outcomes or assurances. The figures from polls and prediction markets can change before people vote.
The Tuesday following November 3 will be when the 2026 midterm election takes place. At present, national polling indicates that the Democrats have a clear lead, although the struggle for control of Congress will still come down to the various races in the House and Senate.
FAQs
Will the Democrats be leading in the 2026 midterms?The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll shows that the Democrats are currently in the lead on the national generic congressional ballot.
What do the prediction markets indicate?
At the moment Polymarket and Kalshi both have higher probabilities in favour of the Democratic Party for the House and the Senate, though these figures are capable of changing.
