Tesla reports third-quarter earnings and revenue after the stock market closes on Wednesday, capping off a big month of announcements for the EV giant. However, so far neither Q3 deliveries nor the vaunted robotaxi event managed to send the stock higher. TSLA heads into earnings down more than 16% this month.
Analyst consensus predicts Tesla quarterly profit falling 9% to 59 cents per share while revenue is expected to increase about 9% to $25.47 billion in Q3, according to FactSet. However, some have the revenue coming in lower than that number.
In early October, Tesla reported global third-quarter deliveries increased 6% compared to a year ago, the third-best quarterly total ever. It was the EV giant's first return to vehicle-unit sales growth in 2024, buoyed by a strong performance in China. However, Tesla saw weaker vehicle sales in the U.S. and Europe.
This dynamic could weigh on the company's Q3 financials, as it reflects a shift to lower-margin China vehicle sales. With the robotaxi event out of the way, analysts and investors are once again keying in on Tesla's auto gross margins, excluding regulatory credits and leases, and will look to see if they have bottomed. Tesla auto gross margins came in at 14.6% in Q2 and the consensus view is that auto margins will increase a fraction in Q3 to 14.7%, according to FactSet.
Coming out of the Oct. 10 robotaxi event, investors will also carefully parse the Q3 earnings call for details about full self-driving, or FSD, specifics, information on the still-unseen "affordable" vehicle as well as any commentary on the long-awaited Model Y refresh.
Dow Jones Futures Fall; Tesla Model Y Buzz Builds
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, wrote on Monday the focus will be on Chief Executive Elon Musk's comments around the consumer EV demand environment heading into the fourth quarter and next year.
The analyst expects Q3 numbers to be in-line with projections with "some slight upside likely on the margins front showing a bottoming on this key metric."
What Investors Learned At The Robotaxi Event
Musk set sky-high expectations for the "We Robot" event. But after showing off a Cybercab and Robovan late on Oct. 10, the market seemed unimpressed with Musk as he once more claimed full autonomous driving will come "next year" but did not offer any details or updates of an "affordable" EV.
Musk did say he expects the Cybercab price tag will be below $30,000, with production starting "before 2027."
Further, Musk expects "fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in California and Texas next year — that's with the Model 3 and Model Y."
However, Musk admitted, "I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames."
Musk has said for years that Tesla would achieve self-driving "this year" or "next year," while production targets often slip considerably. He also didn't offer new evidence that Tesla FSD was making progress toward actual self-driving.
The Tesla chief also showed off the latest Optimus robot. He expects that the cost could be $25,000-$30,000 when produced at scale.
"While many investors left the robotaxi day clearly wanting more details on the broader autonomous and AI strategy at Tesla, we would expect Musk to address some of the timing/specifics around its FSD and Cybercab strategy on the conference call this week along with a possible update on timing for a sub $30k vehicle which we expect in mid 2025," Ives said Monday.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA stock edged down a fraction to 217.87 during market trade on Wednesday. The stock declined 0.4% to 217.97 on Tuesday.
Tesla stock has dropped more than 16% in October, booking the worst weekly loss since April between Oct. 7-Oct. 11. TSLA capped that week with a 8.8% tumble, falling decisively below its 50-day moving average in heavy volume.
Tesla Robotaxi Event: Cybercab, Robovan Unveiled; Musk Sees Self-Driving 'Next Year'
The Oct. 11 sell-off followed the much-hyped Tesla robotaxi event.
The stock has traded tight in the handle of a cup-with-handle base ahead of earnings. The base has a traditional buy point of 264.86, according to MarketSurge charts.
Tesla stock ranks third in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 52 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 52 Relative Strength Rating and a 57 EPS Rating.
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