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Rich Asplund

Arabica Coffee Falls Sharply on ICO Projections for Record Coffee Production

Ice ICO Brazil USDA Vietnam

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed down -3.90 (-1.34%) on Thursday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) closed up +82 (+2.36%).

Coffee prices are mixed today, with arabica falling to a 7-week low and robusta climbing to a 1.5-week high. Arabica coffee prices fell Thursday amid projections from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) for a record global coffee crop and a surplus. The ICO projects 2025/26 global coffee production will climb +4.4% y/y to a record 183.6 million bags and consumption will fall -0.9% y/y to 180.6 million bags, leaving the global coffee market in a 3 million bag surplus, the first surplus in five years.

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