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Rich Asplund

Arabica Coffee Falls on Long Liquidation Pressure

Ice Brazil USDA Conab ICO Vietnam Vietnam General Statistics Office Volcafe

March arabica coffee (KCH25) today is down -9.10 (-2.07%), and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH25) is up +41 (+0.71%).

Arabica coffee prices today fell back from Thursday's all-time nearest-futures high on some long liquidation pressures after the month-long rally.  However, coffee prices have support from continued coffee supply fears.  On Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil's Jan green coffee exports fell -1.6% y/y to 3.98 million bags.  Also, on January 28, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags.  Conab also cut its 2024 Brazil coffee crop estimate by -1.1% to 54.2 million bags from a September estimate of 54.8 million bags.  

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