In a surprising turn of events, DC's Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is facing a rather lackluster start at the box office, projected to be one of the lowest in the history of the DC Cinematic Universe. With an estimated four-day Christmas weekend gross ranging from $40 million to $45 million, the film is struggling to make waves. However, all hope is not lost as it's still expected to claim the top spot and slightly outperform initial tracking predictions.
On its opening day, Aquaman 2 managed to earn approximately $13.7 million from 3,706 theaters, including a modest $4.5 million from Thursday previews. The film finds itself in a tricky position, as the Christmas weekend box office is often overshadowed by last-minute holiday preparations such as travel and gift buying. Unfortunately, Aquaman 2 faces more significant challenges than merely battling against time.
The highly anticipated sequel, helmed by director James Wan and starring the charismatic Jason Momoa, has faced scathing reviews from critics and only managed to garner a B CinemaScore from audiences. This has left the fate of the franchise hanging in the balance, especially considering the troubled path it took to reach the big screen. As new DC chiefs James Gunn and Peter Safran prepare to reboot the DC Universe with Superman: Legacy in 2025, it appears that Aquaman 2 marks the end of an era. Momoa himself has hinted that a third Aquaman installment may not be in the cards.
In stark contrast, the first Aquaman film, released in 2018, proved to be the holiday ruler, swimming to a triumphant three-day opening of $67.9 million over the December 21-23 weekend. By Christmas Day, which fell on a Tuesday that year, it had amassed an impressive domestic tally of $105.4 million (including earnings from special sneak peeks the previous weekend). The movie went on to earn a staggering $335.1 million domestically and a whopping $1.15 billion globally, cementing its position as the most successful DCEU title, without adjusting for inflation.
The lackluster performance of Wan's latest masterpiece lends further weight to the ongoing debate about superhero fatigue. Even the most die-hard fanboys are starting to show signs of weariness, highlighting the need for fresh and innovative storytelling. Adding insult to injury, Aquaman 2 is also trailing behind the disappointing $46.1 million opening of its Marvel Studios rival, The Marvels. This prompts an important question: have audiences reached their saturation point when it comes to hero-centered blockbusters?
Amidst this comic book clash, Warner Bros. finds itself juggling multiple year-end holiday event movies. In addition to Aquaman, they have also released Wonka, which hit theaters last weekend, and The Color Purple, both of which present unique challenges. Notably, two of these films delve into the domain of musicals, testing the appetite for this genre in the holiday movie market.
Meanwhile, Illumination and Universal are adding Migration to the holiday mix, targeting families with an original animated tale. The film, which has earned an impressive A CinemaScore, is expected to pocket around $13 million over the weekend and up to $18 million for the four-day holiday period. However, the true determination of Migration's success will only become clear during the lucrative stretch between Christmas and New Year's.
As we play the waiting game for the final verdict, it seems Aquaman and Wonka are set to dominate the box office, with the Timothée Chalamet-led Wonka projected to earn a satisfying $30 million over the four-day period. Not far behind, Columbia/Sony's romantic-comedy Anyone but You starring Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell is expected to secure a fourth-place finish with an estimated $9 million. While it may have earned a B+ CinemaScore, any grade below an A is not typically considered favorable by studios.
On the other hand, A24's wrestling family drama The Iron Claw, featuring Zac Efron in the lead role, finds itself grappling for attention among the holiday movie lineup. Despite male ticket buyers making up a significant portion of its audience, Iron Claw is projected to open to a modest $8 million, beating initial tracking estimations. Of course, these predictions are subject to change as we await Sunday morning's official numbers.
With several intriguing movies hitting the screens this holiday season, the box office battle rages on. Will Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom rise from the depths and defy expectations? Or will it sink beneath the weight of critics and audience fatigue? Only time will tell, but for now, the fate of DC's aquatic superhero hangs in the balance.
