Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) hit it out of the park with its iPhone 17 lineup. The new family of its flagship devices led the firm not only to post its highest iPhone sales ever in Q4 2025, but also to record its highest total revenue. Despite headwinds from the market believing that Apple lacks a clear artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, iPhone 17 excitement led the stock to hit all-time highs in December 2025.
Now, the Magnificent Seven company is moving into a high-tech market that it has long been absent from: foldable phones.
According to Bloomberg Technology, the company is set to debut its first foldable phone, reportedly dubbed the “iPhone Ultra," in September 2026. (However, there are also reports that manufacturing issues could delay the device’s release.)
For investors, the question is whether the iPhone Ultra can be a needle mover for the tech stock rather than just a fancy new device. This is what the data has to say.
Apple Projected to Reaccelerate Foldable Market Growth to 30%
Foldable phones got off to a fast start during their first few years of availability. Research firm Omdia says that the first foldable phones became available in 2019. By 2021, sales had skyrocketed. Annual foldable smartphone shipments rose by 309% year over year (YOY) to 9 million. The market is still growing, but has tapered off drastically.
IDC estimates that foldable phone sales will increase to around 20.6 million units in 2025, or just 10% YOY. This would represent an approximately 23% compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025. While clearly a huge step down from over 300% growth, this is still meaningful, considering that overall smartphone shipments declined considerably from 2021 to 2025. Additionally, overall shipments rose just 2% YOY in 2025, according to Omdia.
Now, Apple is moving into the foldable game, a development that researchers believe will cause a reacceleration in growth. IDC estimates that foldable shipments will rise by 30% in 2026, and that Apple will take a big share of the market. IDC projects that Apple will account for 22% of shipments and 34% of sales value. This comes as they estimate the iPhone Ultra will have an average price tag near $2,400. This would be approximately double the $1,199 base price of the iPhone 17 Pro Max, Apple’s highest-end model today. (Note that this is the price for the lowest storage version of the iPhone 17 Pro Max.)
Overall, analysts appear optimistic about Apple’s ability to make headway in a high-growth part of the smartphone market. However, whether this will have a significant impact on Apple’s share price is more questionable.
Low Foldable Penetration Likely Limits Near-Term Impacts
Despite enthusiasm around foldables, they continue to represent a very small portion of the overall smartphone market. Counterpoint Research notes that foldables accounted for just 1.6% of the smartphone market in 2025. This low figure is the biggest factor holding the iPhone Ultra back from making a significant mark on Apple shares in the near term.
However, it’s possible that Apple could change how consumers view foldables, leading this penetration rate to rise substantially. This is particularly true since Apple is the dominant smartphone company in the United States, holding around 50% market share as of Q3 2025. Consumers not having a foldable option from Apple has likely weighed on foldable adoption.
Still, even in the largest foldable phone market, China, penetration remains relatively low. Omdia estimates that foldable phones accounted for just 3.2% of the Chinese market in H1 2025. After six years of foldables being available, this raises real questions about how big a market they can ever become.
Looking longer term, IDC believes that after foldable sales rise by 30% in 2026, growth will gradually decelerate to 9.3% by 2029. However, this would be much faster than the projected growth of non-foldables, which IDC believes will not exceed 3% during any year from 2026 to 2029. Notably, they see Apple continuing to gain share over this period, with shipment market share rising to 34% by 2029.
2026: A Test Run for Apple’s Foldable Ambitions
The data around foldable phones paints an interesting picture. Sales look poised to grow much more rapidly than the overall market, but are starting from a minuscule base. If consumers respond to the iPhone Ultra positively, and Apple takes a considerable share, the stock could see an incremental uplift in late 2026.
The long-term impacts could be more significant if foldables become a sustainable, high-growth business for the company. The firm could also see some long-term margin benefits if iPhone Ultra prices are as elevated as IDC suggest. However, sustainable is the key word. A 2023 report from Kantar found that 55% of consumers would bought foldables switched back to conventional smartphones.
Overall, foldables remain a niche market at this point, and the iPhone Ultra is not a primary reason to own the stock. Still, shares could see meaningful upside over a multi-year period if Apple’s foldable foray proves successful, and it convinces customers to stay with the products beyond 2026.
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The article "Apple's Foldable iPhone Foray: A Real Needle Mover or Hype Train?" first appeared on MarketBeat.
