Pro-Ukrainian forces are conducting incursions into Russian territory, temporarily seizing a village in the border region of Kursk, reminiscent of similar operations in the spring of 2023 but occurring in a very different military and political context.
Ukraine-based Russian militias are again on the attack, staging cross-border raids this week into Russian territory. Pro-Ukrainian forces even claimed on Tuesday, March 12, to have taken full control of a Russian village. The Freedom of Russia Legion, mainly composed of anti-Putin Russian fighters, posted a video showing Russian soldiers deserting Tetkino, a municipality in the Kursk region, on the Russian side of the border.
Forces from other pro-Ukrainian groups – the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Siberian Battalion – also announced incursions into the Kursk and Belgorod regions. These attacks were carried out with the support of "tanks, armoured vehicles, and drones", according to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group.
Moscow initially denied the attackers had entered areas inside Russia before stating later that the enemy fighters did not advance very far into Russia and were all driven back. "Thanks to the sacrifice of Russian soldiers, all attacks by Ukrainian terrorists have been repelled," affirmed the Russian ministry of defence.
The situation on the ground appears to be somewhat less clear than suggested by Russian authorities. "Currently, there are still battles around Tetkino and pro-Ukrainian forces still seem capable of controlling part of this locality," says Sim Tack, chief military analyst at Force Analysis, a conflict monitoring company.
Russia's national guard said on Thursday it was fighting off attacks from pro-Ukrainian groups in the Kursk region, as clashes continued at the border.
The Russian defence ministry claimed its troops killed 195 Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed five tanks and four armoured infantry vehicles, two days after saying it killed 234 Ukrainian troops in another border assault.
In a joint statement, three pro-Kyiv militia groups called on Russian authorities to evacuate civilians from the regions of Belgorod and Kursk, saying that "civilians should not suffer from the war”.
The current incursions are "very similar to what happened in the spring and summer of 2023", notes Huseyn Aliyev, a specialist in the Russia-Ukraine war at the University of Glasgow. In that incursion, pro-Kyiv Russian troops had crossed the border – a little further south, in the Belgorod region – and temporarily seized a village before retreating under pressure from Russian artillery.
At the time unprecedented, last year’s incursions served to put pressure on Russia by highlighting that its national territory was poorly protected. The dynamics of the war were then in Ukraine’s favour, given its army had managed to fend off Russian offensives. The 2023 raids had begun just before the start of Kyiv’s counteroffensive and gave the impression that Ukraine could strike anywhere.
The situation today is very different. The counteroffensive has fizzled out and Ukraine is now more on the back foot. As Aliyev notes: "Moscow has built a defensive line – similar to the one it set up in Ukraine – about twenty kilometres inside Russian territory." This line of trenches extends from the north of the Kursk region to the south of the Belgorod region.
Before last year, “Russia didn’t have any defensive positions there”, Aliyev adds, meaning incursions could be made deeper into Russian territory.
Pro-Ukrainian forces chose to attack Tetkino for its vulnerable position.
"The village captured is not behind the defensive line. It’s a buffer zone, what Russia calls a security zone,” Aliyev says. “On the other side of the border the region is mostly under control of Ukrainians, so it's not difficult for pro-Ukraine forces to cross the border and occupy that village"
An attempt to influence the Russian election?
If taking a border village like Tetkino was a relatively easy objective for the Freedom of Russia Legion and other armed groups of anti-Putin Russians, it remains to be seen how long they'll be able to stay there. "If they've taken armoured vehicles, it's also in anticipation of a rapid retreat, so they suspect they won't be able to occupy Tetkino" for long, notes Tack.
But why expend resources on a raid into Russia instead of strengthening defences on the front line in the Donbas, where Ukraine’s forces are under great duress? Officially, the Freedom of Russia Legion claimed it wanted to “influence the presidential election” to be held March 15-17, according to the Moscow Times
The pro-Kyiv Russians aim to show their compatriots that there is an alternative to Putin. "It is a way for them to try to prove to the Russians that they have the means to 'liberate Russia from Putin'," explains Nicolo Fasola, a specialist in Russian military issues at the University of Bologna.
The Ukrainian military leadership also stated that the Russian militia groups had acted on their own without informing Kyiv. According to Tack, this is unlikely “because to be able to move troops and tanks in this region, at least tacit approval from the Ukrainian army is needed. But this helps strengthen the narrative of an operation carried out by Russians to overthrow Vladimir Putin".
But the ambitions of the anti-Putin forces are obviously unattainable, Tack says. “These fighters do not have the means to go very far," he notes, adding that they did not even attempt to break through the new Russian defensive lines.
Few Russians will even hear about the capture of Tetkino, says Aliyev. “The problem is that most Russian don’t follow independent media or Western mass media. And they will be fed with the Russian propaganda about a Ukrainian failed 'terrorist' attempt” against Russia."
Kyiv’s ‘diversion capabilities’
In this regard, the cross-border raids could even be counterproductive. Coming just days before the Russian presidential election, “these incursions will likely cement the attractiveness of Putin as president”, says Fasola. “The rhetoric of a ‘besieged Russia’ is key to Putin’s platform and these attacks on Russian territory basically prove he’s right, in the eyes of the larger Russian public."
But these operations are not useless in the eyes of the Ukrainian high command. "These anti-Putin Russian forces are part of the diversion capabilities at Kyiv’s disposal,” notes Tack. “Each of their operations serves to push Moscow to allocate resources capable of intervening quickly to defend the entry points into Russian territory.”
The raids are part of "a broader strategy at work in recent weeks", says Tack. There were attacks against Russian warships in the Black Sea at the end of February, followed by the strike using dozens of drones against the Lukoil oil refinery in Kirichi, near Saint Petersburg. These diversions are intended to demonstrate Ukraine's disruptive capability, even when pushed into an essentially defensive role on the front line.
This article has been translated from the original in French.
