- Editor’s Note: For the upcoming Sports Illustrated 2026–27 basketball preview magazine that will hit newsstands in October, SI spoke to anonymous scouts around the NBA about all 30 teams.
The first season of the Kevin Durant experiment in Houston ended unceremoniously as the Rockets were eliminated in the first round by the hobbled Lakers in six games.
Luka Dončić missed the entirety of the series and Austin Reaves didn't return until Game 5. LeBron James was tasked with leading the Lakers in a role he’s played so many times, just not last season. Initially, that gave the Rockets the upper hand. Houston had a problem, though.
Kevin Durant missed Game 1 suddenly, then he missed the rest of the series after his lone appearance in Game 2 because of an ankle sprain. The Rockets won two games without their superstar, but the team was entirely too dependent on him, which made winning the series too tall of a mountain to climb.
Houston had a good year with Durant in the mix—earning the fifth seed in the Western Conference and falling just two games shy of No. 3. But the Rockets were “way too reliant” on Durant, an anonymous NBA scout told Sports Illustrated. The good news is that reinforcements are coming.
“Getting Fred VanVleet back will be big,” the scout said. “He's going to be better than Reed Sheppard was last year. Not that Sheppard was that bad, but, Fred's a better creator. He's a better paint threat guy off the dribble. He may not be a better catch-and-shoot three-point shooter, but he's more adept at getting it off in the pick-and-roll. So they have a couple guys that can set screens, especially if Steven Adams is healthy. So I think he'll be a weapon for them that they didn't have.”
VanVleet suffered a torn ACL in an offseason workout that forced him to miss the entirety of last season. That thrust Sheppard into a bigger role in his second NBA season and Amen Thompson took the lead at point guard in a breakout year, although that’s not his most natural position. That didn’t really hurt the group as Durant took on much of the on-ball responsibility, but VanVleet adds a veteran who can knock down shots and make plays.
Thompson averaged 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game as a standout defender. He was rewarded with a five-year, $208 million contract extension recently, which locks down a key young piece through 2032.
“Thompson is an interesting player. He still can't really shoot, but he put up great numbers. He's a threat offensively because of how he plays,” the scout said to SI. “He's a good example of a guy that approaches the game in a humble manner because he doesn't try to force his weaknesses. So if he keeps that up, he's still going to be a problem. Obviously defensively, he's one of the most versatile guys in the conference. But he's still a guy you try to hide someone on. So he's going to have to probably take a notch up to get them to the next level. He would be probably the one guy that they would need to take a jump.”
On paper, the Rockets are deep enough with an intriguing mix of impactful veterans, good young players and a true superstar in Durant. They were good enough last year to jockey for a top-four seed without VanVleet and Adams, who missed the majority of the season with an ankle injury. Alperen Şengün is a huge part of that, coming off two straight All-Star appearances as an extremely versatile young big. He’s not perfect, though, and the clean bill of health with Adams’s return could lead to some ups and downs.
“Defensively, Şengün is a liability,” the scout said. “I don't like them playing him and Adams together. I know they get every rebound, but it's pretty easy to attack when they're both out there. And they hang their hat on defense.
“So I like him strictly as the five. If he goes to his bread and butter, like the pocket catches, and mismatches on switches and things like that, he's definitely going to put up All-Star numbers. But I think he'll have to guard a little bit more.”
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The Rockets have the firepower to be a player in the Western Conference once again. With further improvement from Thompson, Şengün and Sheppard, plus VanVleet’s return and Durant’s continued presence, they’re too solid not to be. Whether that’s enough to compete with the likes of the Thunder and the Spurs is the big question, though.
Offseason Recap
- Who’s in: Marcus Smart, Bogdan Bogdanović, Tari Eason (re-signed), Jae’Sean Tate (re-signed), Amen Thompson (five-year extension), Isaiah Crawford (re-signed)
- Who’s out: Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Okogie
The Rockets were a potential suitor for Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they had a fairly quiet offseason with some nice additions around the margins. To acquire a player like Giannis, Houston would have had to give up at least one of its key young guys like Şengün, which is a huge swing to take. One that was, presumably, too pricey.
Instead, the Rockets are running it back with a clean bill of health. They added Marcus Smart on a two-year deal for veteran guard depth behind VanVleet. Bogdan Bogdanović wasn’t healthy last year, but he’s been a high-level shooter historically who comes in on a one-year, veteran minimum deal.
Roster wise, the biggest question for Houston is Durant’s future. He has two years left on his current contract with a $46.1 million player option he’ll have to decide on next summer. Should the Rockets disappoint, Durant could suddenly become available on the trade market once again and the franchise could pivot to build around Thompson and Şengün.
SI’s prediction for the 2026–27 Rockets
- Record: 46–36
With the roster in place, the Rockets are a perennial playoff team. They aren’t close to the Thunder or the Spurs, but no one in the West is. Houston should remain in the next tier with teams such as the Timberwolves, Nuggets and Lakers. The key will be finishing toward the top of that group, getting home court and, most importantly, avoiding the play-in tournament and subsequently Oklahoma City or San Antonio in the first round.
What’s clear, though, is that this iteration of the team lives and dies with Durant. VanVleet’s return should lessen that, but is that enough to take a true step forward within a crowded conference?
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