Top jumps action this Friday at Prestbury Park, so Andy Newton is back with his horse racing trends for Cheltenham on day one of the December Meeting 2024.
From the seven-race card, there are four horse racing contests being covered LIVE by – that include the Glenfarclas Crystal Cross Country Handicap Chase at 3:00pm. Andy takes a look at these races from a trends and stats angle.
Horse Racing Racing Trends For Cheltenham On Friday 13th December 2024
Andy Newton looks at the four LIVE ITV Racing contests from Cheltenham on Friday.
1:50 Cheltenham – Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Coming Soon Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV
Several horsed that were due to run in Saturday’s cancelled Becher Chase at Aintree – including Grand Sefton winner King Turgeon, Chianti Classico and Chambard.
Of that bunch King Turgeon will be popular, but he’s up 8lbs for that last win and this is also his first run at Cheltenham. While Chambard won the Kim Muir here in 2022 and can’t be ruled out with the Venetia Williams horses still in flying form.
However, despite having a big weight (12st) the Kim Bailey-trained Chianti Classico looks the most likely favourite and with 18 of the last 21 winners having raced at the track before this is a big bonus for him.
This 7 year-old has won four of his six career starts and also returned this season with another facile win at Ascot recently.
Festival fans will also remember him winning the Ultima here in March and even though he’s up a massive 14lbs from that is a fast-improving chaser that will love the quicker ground. There should be more to come.
Key Cheltenham Trends
- 18/21 – Won over at least 3m (fences)
- 18/21 – Run over fences at Cheltenham before (8 won)
- 17/21 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
- 16/21 – Won at least 3 times over fences
- 15/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/21 – Aged 8 or younger
- 12/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
- 11/21 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (none won)
- 11/21 – Irish bred
- 10/21 – Favourites placed
- 9/21 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
- 8/21 – Won their last race
- 5/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
- 5/21 – Favourites
- 2/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 5 runnings)
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11-1 or less
- Sam Twiston-Daves has ridden 3 of the last 5 winners
- Charlie Deutsch has ridden 2 of the last 8 winners
2:25 Cheltenham – Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) Cl2 (9yo+ 0-150) 2m4½f ITV
Horses here in this Veterans’ Chase has to be 9+, but they are all aged 10 or 11.
Shakem Up’arry won the Plate at the Festival and is back to the track for the first time since – being up just 6lb here and despite the lay-off is a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past for his famous owner Harry Redknapp.
We’ve also the 2023 Plate winner in Seddon, who is also running back at Prestbury Park for the first time on just a 3lb higher mark.
The Skelton yard remain in good form, so their Shan Blue is one for the shortlist.
But Torn And Frayed is another of interest after bouncing back to winning ways at Warwick to win last month.
He beat another runner here Eldorado Allen by 8 1/2 lengths that day and meets that runner on similar terms despite being hiked 6lbs in the ratings. He’s won off this mark in the past too and is also a course winner here at Cheltenham which further adds to confidence.
Key Cheltenham Trends
- No previous runnings
- Trainer David Pipe is just 1-from-24 with his chasers at the track
- Jockey Jack Tudor is 0-from-16 riding over fences at the track
3:00 Cheltenham – Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m5½f ITV
The Cross Country race is not everyone’s cup of tea, but I don’t mind it.
Looking at the Cheltenham trends, it’s a race that tends to go to a horse with experience over the fences – 16 of the last 19 ticked this stat.
While a top three finish last time and also running in the last four weeks are other plusses.
Delta Work has landed the Festival Cross Country race twice, so we know he loves these obstacles – but being a handicap has a big weight (12st) and isn’t getting any younger at 11.
We’ve also last year’s winner Latenightpass, who is also 11 and up just 4lbs from last year. He’s certainly a player.
French raider Iceo Madrik won a similar race in him homeland last time out and will be popular aged just 6 and with more to come. But that win came on heavy ground, which he’s unlikely to get here.
So, the ones of interest are Stumptown and Mister Coffey.
Yes, the former is running over these fences for the first time but has run well here many times on the main track – winning at the New Year’s Day meeting last season.
He also won over the bank course (similar) at Punchestown last time, which suggests he’ll like this fresh test.
The other one Mister Coffey was a fine second over this course last time – beaten just 6 1/2 lengths to Sweet David – and the handicapper has dropped him a pound for that.
This Nicky Henderson horse has been hard to win with and is actually 0-14 over fences but will only have 10-9 here and seemed to enjoy the change of scenery last time in this race.
Key Cheltenham Trends
- 18/19 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
- 16/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (4 won)
- 16/19 – Raced over the Cheltenham Cross Country course before
- 15/19 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/19– Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
- 11/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
- 11/19 – Aged 9 or older
- 11/19 – Favourites placed
- 9/19 – Aged in double-figures
- 8/19 – Won over the Cheltenham Cross Country course before
- 8/19 – French bred
- 6/19 – Won last time out
- 5/19 – Carried 11-12
- 4 of the last 8 winners Irish-trained
- Latenightpass won the race in 2023
3:35 Cheltenham – Citipost Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m ITV
Many interesting sorts here – including Might I, Gowel Road, Wonderful Eagle and Thanksforthehelp.
However, Doyen Quest did me a favour on the Final Furlong Podcast, where y ou can listen to my weekend racing thoughts, the last time it won, and this Skelton horse looks worth sticking with.
He travelled well that day and showed a good turn-of-foot to beat Gowel Road by 5 lengths and even though he’s up 10lbs for that looks the sort to have more in the locker.
Doyen Quest also ticks some of the key Cheltenham trends here – including being aged 7 or younger, track form, and having raced at Prestbury Park last time out.
Key Cheltenham Trends
- 18/21 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
- 17/21 – Carried 11-2 or less
- 16/21 – Irish bred
- 16/21 – Aged 7 or younger
- 16/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
- 16/21 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
- 12/21 – Unplaced favourites
- 12/21 – Rated between 127 and 137
- 10/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
- 10/21 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the betting
- 10/21 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (one winner)
- 9/21 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
- 6/21 – Won last time out
- 4/21 – Favourites
- 3/21 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
- 2/21 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
- 3 of the last 7 winners ridden by a claimer
