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The Street
The Street
Business
Rob Lenihan

Analysts recharge Rivian price target after earnings

Earlier this year, Apple  (AAPL)  reportedly threw in the towel on Titan.

Project Titan was the computer giant's decade-long effort to build an electric car. 

Related: Analysts revisit Apple stock price targets after earnings

While Apple never confirmed that it was looking to get into the car business, the iPhone maker was sure acting that way, as it hired automobile industry executives and acquired a self-driving car company.

Bloomberg first reported that many employees working on the project were to be moved to the company’s artificial intelligence division.

The move came at time when EV sales were disappointing and several carmakers were pulling back on investments and cutting prices.

Meanwhile, AI was quickly becoming the dominant force in the tech world and Apple wanted to keep up with the ever-changing times.

And that looked like the end of the road for Apple's automotive aspirations. But maybe not.

DigiTimes reported on May 7 that there is “speculation among supply chains” that Apple is investigating teaming up with an EV startup.

Although it is “uncertain what form such a collaboration could take,” the report indicated that Rivian Automotive  (RIVN)  is the leading candidate for whatever the heck it is.

Rivian CEO Robert "RJ" Scaringe is riding a wave of growing electric vehicle adoption.

PATRICK T. FALLON/Getty Images

CFO says 'primary focus is reducing costs'

If true, the collaboration with Apple would undoubtably give the EV startup a much-need jolt of capital and prestige.

The story broke on the same day that Rivian posted a first-quarter loss of $1.24 per share, down from a $1.25 loss a year ago, while revenue increased more than 80% to $1.204 billion.

Related: Analysts reboot Palantir stock price target after earnings

Analysts predicted a loss of $1.15 per share in the first quarter with sales totaling $1.17 billion.

Like many EV startups, Rivian has been facing some serious challenges. Last month, the company said it had cut about 1% of its workforce. This followed a 10% layoff in February when the company offered a lower-than-expected 2024 production forecast.

In March, Rivian announced it was pausing construction of its $5 billion manufacturing plant in Georgia to speed production and save money.

Rivian said it would it produce its smaller, more affordable R2 SUV, at its existing plant in Normal, Ill. instead of the Georgia facility. The company recently announced an incentive package of up to $827 million from the State of Illinois to expand the Normal plant.

"The energy within the plant is palpable," said Rivian founder and CEO RJ Scaringe. "The excitement to deliver on improved quality and improved cycle time is real."

Chief financial officer Claire McDonough told analysts that the primary focus is on reducing material costs, "which we've already seen improvements in Q1."

"The recent plant upgrades will increase production efficiency by 30%, reducing labor and overhead costs per unit," she said. "We also anticipate benefits from negotiated supplier components and a decrease in depreciation expenses as we fully depreciate some initial tooling."

Analysts reacted to Rivian's quarterly results by adjusting the stock price targets.

Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy reiterated his buy rating on Rivian with a $21 price target, noting that the company is still in the right place and time with the right product and strategy. 

"We have a Buy on RIVN, which is predicated on our view that it is one of the most viable among start-up EV automakers and a relative competitive threat to incumbent OEMs (and possibly to other automotive-related verticals)," Murphy said in a research note.

Rivian, the analyst said, also has an interesting and attractive product, relatively competitive technology, "and intangible value in the Rivian brand."

Analyst sees 'low margin for error'

"While we acknowledge the competitive landscape for EVs is fierce, we believe RIVN has more pieces in place and in progress than most EV OEM peers," he said.

Cantor Fitzgerald lowered the firm's price target on Rivian Automotive to $15 from $23 and kept an overweight rating on the shares.

More Wall Street Analysts:

While Rivian reaffirmed its annual 2024 production guidance of 57,000, Cantor expects the second quarter to be the weakest quarter in the year, and is modeling a decrease in both vehicle production and deliveries, relative to the first quarter, the firm said in a research note. 

Cantor Fitzgerald said it is encouraged by the company's reaffirmation to fulfill its agreement with Amazon  (AMZN) , which owns about 17% of Rivian, to deliver up to 100,000 EDVS, and to achieve positive gross margins in the fourth quarter.

Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan lowered the firm's price target on Rivian to $10 from $14 and kept an equal weight rating on the shares following quarterly results. 

Langan noted that Rivian first quarter adjusted EBITDA ex. special charges missed consensus.  He added that the implied annual pace of the company's free cash flow "implies about six quarters until cash runs out." 

Related: Tesla Autopilot recall probe is looking into possible securities, wire fraud

Management noted that first-quarter working capital was impacted by higher inventory and accounts receivable, he said, but the company expects working capital to be positive for the fiscal year

"The enthusiasm in the stock is a testament to consumer and investor optimism about RIVN's disruptive technology, product and brand strategy, and high-powered partnerships," Langan wrote. "However, the company has a low margin for error in all aspects of its business."

"Its limited production and commercial history leaves much to be seen," he added. "Rivian must prove it can acquire the customer base, while maintaining low advertising costs."

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered the firm's price target on Rivian Automotive to $11 from $12 and kept a neutral rating on the shares. 

The analyst reduced estimates following the March quarter report. The firm sees Rivian as fairly valued with a strong product roadmap as investors await the low-cost R2.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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