Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

A man guides a ship in the water. (Credit: Majid Saeedi—Getty Images)

In the early days of the Iran war, analysts held the grim prediction that crude oil prices would top $200 a barrel, nearly triple pre-war prices. But more than three months into the conflict, their fears have not materialized, and analysts have China’s trade activity to thank for it.

“As the conflict enters its fourth month, one development stands out: prices have become remarkably calm,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note this week.