So will Boris Johnson be forced to resign or not?
The evidence for the prosecution is strong, some would argue overwhelming.
Exhibit No1: At least one Metropolitan Police fine showing Mr Johnson broke the law by partying in Downing Street while Britain was in lockdown or under other Covid restrictions. The Prime Minister may contest the fine, but there are no signs of that yet, so he would be the first serving premier of the UK to be sanctioned for breaking the law.
Exhibit No2: The same said fine - showing that not only did he break the law, he broke his own law which he expected millions of other people across England to follow to save lives and protect the NHS.
Exhibit No3: Numerous statements, including from many people who lost loves during the pandemic or made other huge sacrifices during lockdown, revealing the scale of public outrage at the partygate scandal.
Exhibit No4: Footage of Mr Johnson denying that people were partying away in Downing Street as the nation was being urged not to behave in this manner. Ministers who knowingly mislead Parliament are expected to resign.
Exhibit No5: The Prime Minister’s insistence that he did not break the regulations, now clearly at odds with Scotland Yard.
Exhibit No6: Accusations that he presided over a culture in Downing Street which allowed events such as a “bring-your-own booze party” in the garden of No10.
Exhibit No7: The scale of the partying in Downing Street and Whitehall, with the Met investigating 12 events, with Mr Johnson believed to have attended up to six of them.
Exhibit No8: The humiliating verbal contortions that Cabinet ministers have had to repeatedly make to defend Mr Johnson.
Exhibit No9: Sending Tory and his own poll ratings into a nosedive.
Exhibit No10: The Nolan seven principles of public life: Selflessness, Integrity, Objectivity, Accountability, Openness, Honesty and Leadership.
Summing up the case for the prosecution, it is a damning and unprecedented indictment of a serving Prime Minister who faces accusations, which he will almost certainly deny, that he knowingly misled Parliament over the scandal. On December 1 at Prime Minister’s Questions, Mr Johnson was quizzed about the alleged lockdown busting events by Sir Keir Starmer. The PM told the Commons: “What I can tell the right hon. and learned Gentleman is that all guidance was followed completely in No10.”
However, while it is an unprecedented political charge sheet, it is also almost unprecedented times, with the biggest war in Europe now taking place in Ukraine since the Second World War.
So for the defence:
Exhibit No1: Many Tory MPs who believed Mr Johnson should stand down if fined now saying the timing is wrong as they do not think that the British Prime Minister should be replaced during such a crisis.
Exhibit No2: Mr Johnson has played a leading role in the West’s response to Vladimir Putin’s barbaric invasion, repeatedly pushing for a tougher stance on sanctions and on providing military support for Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He has won praise from Mr Zelensky.
Exhibit No3: Polls showing the Tories are now trailing Labour by four points or so, meaning fewer Conservative MPs may be staring at the end to their parliamentary career at the next General Election, expected in 2024.
Exhibit No4: Mr Johnson has defied political gravity for years, surviving a series of scandals including over the funding of his Downing Street flat refurbishment, his alleged liaison with Jennifer Arcuri, the Owen Paterson sleaze storm, and tearing up manifesto commitments on tax and other issues.
Exhibit No5: No obvious frontrunner replacement. With Rishi Sunak’s meteoric political rise now having gone into a nosedive, who would replace Mr Johnson if he was forced out. Not only has the Chancellor been caught up in a huge row over his family’s tax matters, he has also been slapped with a Met fine for breaking Covid regulations.
Exhibit No6: Brexit which may persuade some Tory backbenchers to stay loyal to the man who won them the 2016 referendum.
Exhibit No7: Some Tory MPs have sought to dismiss the fixed penalty notices issued by the Met as little more than a parking fine. That argument just does not wash and they are frankly embarrassing themselves.
Exhibit No8: Ditching a leader so close to local elections, especially if accompanied by an outburst of party infighting, may lead to even more losses of council seats.
Summing up the case for the defence, quite simply, ousting Mr Johnson would be most welcomed in the Kremlin.
Faced with the threat from Putin, the Prime Minister should stay in place as the European Continent has been plunged into such a horrific conflict. And if he goes, who would replace him.
With news of the fines still fresh, Conservative MPs are mulling over whether to send in letters to trigger a no confidence vote in Mr Johnson; 54 such epistles would be required to reach Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of Backbench MPs, for this to happen.
Several of Mr Johnson’s harshest critics have stepped back from calling for him to go in the middle of the Ukraine crisis, so he may well hang on, though these are febrile times.
Many Tory MPs may decide to wait to see how their party fares in the May local elections.
If they find their party gets a drubbing because of Mr Johnson’s No10 parties, then he may well face further trouble.
