Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled over the country for nearly two and a half decades, undefeated. In that time, elections have largely followed a similar trajectory, each strengthening his popularity and position of authority.
But a few years ago, warning signs emerged. In the 2019 local elections, Erdogan’s AK Party lost the mayoral race in four of Turkey’s largest cities, including the biggest city, Istanbul – where Erdogan made his name as mayor in the 1990s. Then, in the most recent local elections at the end of March, the results were even worse, with the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) emerging victorious again.
