Americans now have the least confidence in finding a new job since at least 2013, a period also known as the depths of the “jobless recovery” following the Great Recession. According to the latest August 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Federal Reserve, the perceived probability of securing a new job in case of job loss has dropped to 44.9%. That’s the lowest reading since the start of the series in June 2013. The decline was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, the New York Fed reported, “but it was most pronounced for those with at most a high school education.”
The term “jobless recovery” predates the Great Recession that began in 2008, but it took many years for the economy to recover all the jobs lost in the crash after the subprime mortgage bubble popped. At its peak, unemployment soared past 10% in late 2009, only dropping below 8% by 2013—more sluggish than prior recoveries. Employers slowly restored payrolls, but the jobs deficit from the recession was so vast that, even by mid-2014, the economy had merely regained the 8.7 million jobs it had lost since 2007. Many workers spent months, even years, looking for jobs, and long-term unemployment reached historic highs.
