America is ‘flirting with recession’ if tech investment slows, according to new modeling—but bubble risk is still smaller than dotcom era

A trader works at his desk on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on October 7, 2025 (Credit: TIMOTHY A. CLARY—AFP/Getty Images)

• Oxford Economics warned that America’s heavy reliance on tech investment leaves its economy vulnerable if the sector slows. Lead economist Adam Slater said U.S. GDP would have “barely grown” this year without tech, and a downturn could pull growth below 1% in 2026 while dragging global output lower. Though exposure is less severe than during the dotcom crash, Slater cautioned that U.S. households’ record stock holdings heighten the risk of financial strain if valuations fall.

There may be some divided opinion among economists about the trajectory of the U.S. economy, but one thing they can agree on is that the tech sector—namely its investment—has been the engine driving U.S. growth.