America has spent decades building a sprawling higher education system around a steady supply of college-age students. Now, there are about to be fewer of them to go around.
A record 3.9 million U.S. students graduated from high school in 2025. But that peak marks a turning point: By 2041, the country is projected to produce about 3.4 million high school graduates a year, a 13% drop, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.
