Something interesting happened in AMD’s earnings call, and I’m not talking about the stock price dropping significantly. CEO Lisa Su started talking about its games console chip business, and let slip that “development of Microsoft’s next-gen Xbox featuring an AMD semi-custom SoC is progressing well to support a launch in 2027.”
She also mentioned the Steam Machine is still set for “early this year” too, but it’s that Xbox comment that piqued my interest, as this conflicts with what Microsoft has said in the past. So let’s break down what I predict will be in this next console, and why I’m skeptical about the launch year.
Predicting the next Xbox specs (way too early)
So as Xbox president Sarah Bond said, this is set to be a “very premium, very high-end, curated experience.” With a higher spec ceiling to reach (and a rumored cost of $1,000), that gives Microsoft (and AMD) a lot of room to work in to create what is set to be a console/PC hybrid.
I’m going to go through the rumors I’ve seen and given them a rating out of 10 on likelihood (in my opinion of course):
- AMD Zen 6 chipset architecture (7/10): This next gen CPU architecture is set to rollout in late 2026 — moving to TSMC’s new manufacturing processes to stuff more transistors on there for improved performance. In my mind, it seems likely.
- RDNA 5 GPU (6/10): Xbox Series X sports AMD’s RDNA 2 GPU architecture, which was Team Red’s graphics tech back in 2020. While I can see the logic here (RDNA 2 launched in early 2020 for PCs and came to consoles later that year), given the GPU squeeze at the moment for AI infrastructure, I can see the current-gen RDNA 4 coming instead.
- Up to 48GB of GDDR7 RAM (5/10): Casting serious doubt on this in the current RAM price crisis. Of course, I have my (rather selfish) prayer circle that this AI bubble bursts and components are reasonably priced again. But even with that in mind, I still anticipate 16GB of VRAM.
- AI and neural rendering (10/10): AMD has pivoted hard to AI trickery using FSR Redstone, and the PS5 Pro already does this. I would be shocked if the next-gen Xbox didn’t sport this.
Why I’m pressing ‘X’ to doubt
Well, my suspicions come from what Microsoft itself said. Back in the FTC vs. Microsoft court battle, documents revealed that the next Xbox (and PS6) were set for 2028. This “hybrid game platform” is set to combine local hardware and cloud computing.
Of course, this could’ve changed over the years since this court battle happened, and the “very high-end” comments from Bond does suggest that a pivot is on the table here. But let’s go deeper.
One thing that’s clear is RAMageddon is set to impact console gaming, and with next-gen systems, companies like Microsoft and Sony have a decision to make: Stick to this expected timeline and make it hurt, or wait it out for this DRAM drought to correct.
If I were a betting man, I’d go for the latter. But I’d love to know when you think the PS6 and next-gen Xbox will launch.
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