The thing about the permutations ahead of the final round of group games in the All-Ireland SFC is that there are all too few of them.
That was always going to be the case where three teams emerge from groups of four, but here goes anyway.
In Group 1, Mayo (four points) are assured of a place in the knockout stages and will finish top and go straight through to a quarter-final should they avoid defeat against Cork (two points) in Limerick on Sunday. They could even lose and still finish top.
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The only way that Louth (zero points) can save themselves is to beat Kerry in Portlaoise. Do that and they’ll be guaranteed to get out of the group, while Kerry would be relying on a favour from Mayo against Cork just to stay afloat.
Similar to Mayo, Galway (four points) are assured of progression from Group 2 and will secure top spot with any sort of result against Armagh (two points).
If Tyrone (two points) draw with or beat Westmeath (zero points), both them and Armagh will progress to the preliminary quarter-finals regardless of what happens elsewhere.
For Westmeath, it’s pretty straightforward: a five-point win over Tyrone in Cavan will guarantee their passage to the last 12. A more slender victory would leave them needing a leg-up from Galway.
Scoring difference looks set to play a significant role in Group 3, where the two frontrunners, Dublin and Roscommon (three points each), face off against Sligo and Kildare (one point each) respectively.
If both Roscommon and Dublin were to win, as expected, Roscommon would top the group by matching or bettering Dublin’s result. Dublin, meanwhile, need to beat Sligo by two points more than any victory Roscommon might record over Kildare to go straight to the quarter-finals.
It’s a similar dynamic at the bottom, where Kildare are a point better off than Sligo on scoring difference. So, as long as they don’t suffer a worse result than Sligo, they will progress to the knockout stages.
Of course, Sligo and Kildare could still reel in either of Dublin and Roscommon by beating them, although the formbook would suggest that it’s unlikely.
Group 4 is essentially cut and dried, with Clare (zero points) already eliminated.
Derry (three points) play the Banner Saturday when a victory would be enough to see them top the group unless Monaghan (three points) score a more comprehensive victory over Donegal (two points).
Essentially, Monaghan-Donegal boils down to the winner having home advantage in a preliminary quarter-final.
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