It was the one statistic that former Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau regularly fell back on.
He wasn’t alone in that belief, either.
Fred Hoiberg and Billy Donovan weren’t exactly disciples of analytics, but both have had off-the-record discussions of the importance of a team’s regular-season point differential.
It’s not the end-all-be-all of determining who will represent each conference in the NBA Finals, just because there are always outliers or injured players coming back to change a team’s momentum, but it does carry some heavy force behind it.
In the 2015-16 Finals between Cleveland and Golden State, both teams led their conferences in point differential in the regular season. The Warriors led the West in differential the 2016-17 season and won it, and then in their repeat year were second in differential in the West. Even last season, Milwaukee led the East in point differential, and held the Larry O’Brien Trophy up when the dust cleared.
Which leads to just how important Alex Caruso has been to the Bulls this season, and why his return to practice on Friday was so vital.
Caruso was a full go at the Advocate Center, and while he said there was no target date for his return as he deals with normal “soft tissue stuff,” he considered himself day-to-day.
The sooner the better as far as the Bulls were concerned.
There’s a lot of numbers that surround his impact to the roster, but none are bigger than point differential.
Yes, Caruso makes the Bulls a top five team in defensive rating — compared to a bottom three without him — but it’s the point differential with and without him that’s the head-shaker.
In the 28 games Caruso has played in, the Bulls have allowed 105.6 points per game. In the 38 without him? How about 114.8 for a 9.2 differential.
As a team, the Bulls currently sit with a point differential of 1.5. That’s the lowest of the top six teams in the East, with Boston having the highest at 5.7. So the fact that Caruso gives them a 9.2 differential not only shows the impact he has when he’s on the floor — Caruso leads the Bulls in plus/minus with a plus-5 — but how they all seem to be lifted on the defensive end just with his presence in a uniform.
The other number that carries weight is the 19-9 record (.679 winning percentage) with Caruso vs. the 21-17 (.552) without him.
But here’s the asterisk and why.
First of all, most of Caruso’s best work came in the easier part of the Bulls schedule. Of the 19 wins, 10 of them came against teams below .500, and only two came against teams with a winning percentage over the .600 mark — Utah and Dallas.
Caruso played in two of the four losses to Philadelphia, two of the three losses to Miami, one of the two losses to Golden State, and of course was knocked out of the first meeting with Milwaukee after Grayson Allen tackled him in mid-air for a flagrant-2 that led to his right wrist fracture.
So it’s not like he doesn’t factor in the disappointing showings against the league’s elite.
And while he’s still going to be searching for an offensive rhythm once he does return to playing in games, he’s being thrown into the fire. The Bulls have the toughest remaining schedule in the East, still playing Cleveland and Milwaukee twice, as well as Utah, Phoenix, Miami and Boston.
Translation: Caruso’s value is really about to be tested.
NOTE: Zach LaVine did not practice on Friday, dealing with soreness in the left knee. Like he does most game days, Donovan will meet with LaVine and make a decision on his availability against the Cavaliers on Saturday.
