The last time the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers squared off was over two months ago, when Detroit dropped both games of a two-game series shortly after the All-Star break. At that point, the Tigers’ record stood at 52–57, with their odds of making the postseason a meager 0.5%, per FanGraphs. And, well, we all know what happened from there.
Now the two sides will meet again over two months later in a matchup that pits one team that’s been in first place every day since April 14, against another that didn’t seize control of a wild-card spot until the season’s final week. While most casual eyes will be affixed elsewhere for the divisional series—to watch Aaron Judge and the Yankees, Shohei Ohtani’s playoff debut or the impossible-to-kill Mets—the “other” matchup this round has no shortage of intrigue.
Here are the three keys to the Tigers-Guardians matchup.
1. Battle of the bullpens
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said during the wild-card series against the Houston Astros that Detroit’s pitching plan was Tarik Skubal and then “pitching chaos.” That plan worked to perfection, as the Tigers used seven pitchers to shut down the Astros’ bats in Game 2 to pull off the sweep. Stretching that strategy out into a best-of-five series presents an added challenge, and presumably the non-Skubal starters will get opportunities to impact this series with the added runway. But Detroit has depth in the bullpen, so expect Hinch to continue throwing all his available arms for short spurts to keep Cleveland’s hitters off balance.
On the other side of the bullpen management spectrum is the Guardians’ more traditional ‘pen usage. The back end of Cleveland’s relief corps is as impressive as there is in baseball. Rookies Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis both posted sub-2.00 ERAs across a combined 150 innings this season, while All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase allowed five (yes, five) earned runs on the season and led the league in saves for the third straight year. All told, Cleveland relief pitchers posted a 2.57 ERA this year, the lowest for any team’s bullpen since 2013.
Guardians manager Stephen Vogt will know what to do late in the game when Cleveland has the lead, and Hinch will mix and match as early and often as he feels he needs to. The Tigers will start Tarik Skubal in Game 2, which lines him up to pitch Game 5 if the series lasts that long. If it does, Detroit will feel plenty confident riding with the best pitcher in the league in a do-or-die game, meaning the Tigers would just need to win one non-Skubal game to gain a series advantage. It will be fascinating to see whether Hinch goes all-in, so to speak, on one bullpen game like he did in Game 2 in Houston, banking on Skubal winning both of his outings.
2. Help for José Ramírez
The Guardians’ third baseman is one of the most underrated superstars of his generation, and nearly missed pulling off a 40–40 season. He enters October swinging a hot bat but will need help from his supporting cast if Cleveland hopes to make it past Detroit.
Of the 10 hitters who notched at least 200 plate appearances this season, only four posted a wRC+ above league average (100): Ramírez (141), Josh Naylor (118), Steven Kwan (131) and David Fry (129). That group does not include Jhonkensy Noel, a.k.a. Big Christmas, who put up a 118 wRC+ with 13 home runs in 198 plate appearances. Noel has big power and torches lefties but was just 6-for-51 in September after a hot August. Facing a Tigers pitching staff that’s likely to mix and match a lot, gaining platoon advantages and leaning on bench bats will be crucial for Vogt to maneuver.
3. Can one non-ace step up?
This is sort of an extension of the first key relating to bullpen usage, but slightly different. The Tigers have exactly one reliable starting pitcher in Skubal, and the Guardians’ clear ace is Tanner Bibee (though certainly in a tier far lower than Skubal’s). After that, neither club likely feels too confident about the rest of their traditional starting pitchers. Detroit’s next best options are Reese Olson and Keider Montero, while the Guardians have Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd, who combined to make just 11 starts on the season.
The bullpens for each club will obviously provide safety nets in case any starter falters, but if any of the less heralded starting pitchers are able to deliver a surprise quality outing, it could be the deciding factor that tips the scales from one side to the other.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as ALDS Preview: Three Keys to Watch in the Tigers-Guardians Series.
