Nine days until the first round of the NFL draft, and I can’t wait. Let’s dive into what we’re hearing this week …
Caleb Downs
I’ll give you one thing I think here, that’s not based on what I’m hearing, draft-wise: Caleb Downs is a perfect fit for the Giants.
The reason goes back to a story I wrote in the immediate aftermath of John Harbaugh’s dismissal from Baltimore, detailing his innovation in how the team revamped the defense when Wink Martindale was promoted to coordinator in 2018. If you go through the piece, you’ll see how a huge part of making the scheme was one where a defense that attacked and exploited an offense the way offenses do defense was having a heady safety.
At the very front end of the build was Eric Weddle, the ultimate air traffic controller for the Baltimore defense. Eventually, that baton was passed to Kyle Hamilton. And the concept was taken by guys who were part of that change, with Jesse Minter a good example in how he gave Derwin James a lot of latitude to adjust the defense with the Chargers.
Harbaugh now has his old defensive backs coach, Dennard Wilson, as coordinator in New York to put the scheme in, and Downs is out there as a safety whose primary strength coming into the NFL may be his football IQ.
Now, the fifth pick is high to select a safety, so it may be a nonstarter for the Giants.
Safeties
And on that last point, it’s worth taking a look at the position for players like Downs, Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman and Toledo’s Emmanuel McNeil-Warren.
Since 2010, with 16 classes accounted for, 13 safeties have been drafted in the top 20. Just one, ex-Chiefs safety Eric Berry, went in the top five. Only two (Jamal Adams and Mark Barron) went in the top 10. The remaining 10 (Earl Thomas, Kenny Vaccaro, Eric Reid, Keanu Neal, Calvin Pryor, Karl Joseph, Malik Hooker, Minkah Fitzpatrick, James and Hamilton) went between Nos. 11 and 20.
Also, Hamilton is the only safety drafted in the top 20 over the past seven drafts.
Why? Aside from just the on-field value of the position, I’d guess it’s analytics and a focus toward drafting premium positions early, because the savings in getting a great edge rusher, corner or left tackle in the first round are pretty substantial, and create roster building flexibility elsewhere.
Rueben Bain Jr.
The Rueben Bain Jr. story from the weekend is interesting in that a lot of people have asked me, on social media and otherwise, why it didn’t surface previously if so many knew.
All 32 teams, to be clear, were aware of the incident. I first heard about it in February, when I was gathering information ahead of the NFL combine. And I think the easiest way to answer why it didn’t come out earlier is that, for teams, it wasn’t going to impact where he would be drafted. After I heard about it in February, only a couple of teams raised it with me when discussing Bain, and those I raised it with basically said there was an explanation.
Much of that explanation came out in Ollie Connolly’s story on Sunday. The one lingering question teams had was why, given that the accident was at 4 a.m. ET, Bain wasn’t administered a field sobriety or breathalyzer test. For what it’s worth, Bain’s mother, Lachande Thompson, is a veteran correctional officer at the Everglades Correctional Institution in Miami-Dade County. And Bain has maintained with teams that he doesn’t drink.
Most of the scouts I’ve spoken with have known about this incident since the fall. It happened during March 2024, when Destiny Betts tragically died in the accident on spring break. A lawsuit was filed, and it was settled in June.
Since Bain has had to answer for all this with teams. As we wrote in the takeaways on Monday, the pass rusher hasn’t been eager to talk about the accident, but he also didn’t seem to be hiding anything, either, and was relatively forthcoming with the facts.
Clearly, Betts’s family wants to move on.
So, I don’t think it’s going to change much as far as where Bain lands next Thursday in the first round. In fact, his arm length—30 7/8-inch arms— is probably a bigger issue for teams at this point—mostly, again, because none of this information was new to them.
Jeremiyah Love/Sonny Styles
The non-premium position argument applies to Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love and Ohio State LB Sonny Styles the same way it does for Downs. Those three might be the best players in the draft, but their positions could limit how high they’re selected.
Last month, we wrote about that dynamic and how the Lions, back in 2023, were able to capitalize on other teams devaluing certain positions in the draft, landing RB Jahmyr Gibbs, LB Jack Campbell, DB Brian Branch and TE Sam LaPorta in the top 50. All four have become really good football players for Detroit.
New York Jets
Just to circle back on my Jets lead from Monday’s takeaways, while there’s pressure on the coaches to turn a corner in 2026, owner Woody Johnson has given the team-builders, Darren Mougey and Aaron Glenn, plenty of leeway to execute a longer-term plan. Green-lighting trades of stars Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner to amass a warchest of the top 44 picks this year, and five first-round picks over the next two years, meant taking a hit business-wise last year in November and December.
So I’d say it’s at least encouraging that Glenn and Mougey were able to see the front end of their vision through. And we’ll see in the fall if that patience is extended as their build enters its next phase. But there’s no question that Glenn and his staff, as we said Monday, will have to make that light at the end of the tunnel a little brighter in 2026.
San Francisco 49ers
I loved what 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk said on The Jim Rome Show on his quarterback, Brock Purdy, the other day.
“I don’t know what it is, what it’s going to take for this guy to finally get the respect that I think he truly deserves,” Juszczyk told Rome. “Season in, season out, he plays tremendously and I don’t know what it is. I don’t know if it’s just the fact that he’s not a first-round draft pick, if that is just going to be the story for his entire career, and be kind of held against him. Maybe. I love the guy, as a person, as my quarterback, as a football player. He is the dude.”
Interestingly enough, Purdy’s the name I hear Alabama QB Ty Simpson compared to most often. Simpson, of course, probably lands somewhere in the second round, rather than the first, because he doesn’t possess elite physical traits. But if he can play like Purdy has the past four years? He’d be a pretty good value on Day 2 of the draft.
RIP, Dave McGinnis
Finally, here’s hoping the family of Dave McGinnis finds peace in his memory. Coach Mac is one of the best I’ve been around in 21 years covering the NFL. He was always upbeat, always friendly, always happy to see you, and, as I saw, always lifting the mood of whatever room he may happen to be in. Mac was the best. I’m gonna miss running into him, and how genuinely excited he always seemed to be to see me. I know he was like that with everyone.
Mac was just a rare guy that way, and he'll be missed by many.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Albert Breer’s Notes: Predicting the Perfect NFL Draft Fit for the Giants.
