ALBA are set to win seats in Scotland at the next Holyrood election, according to new analysis.
The poll from Norstat put support for Alex Salmond’s party at 5% in the regional vote, with Ballot Box Scotland (BBS) suggesting this could lead to a return of three MSPs.
The same poll also put support for Reform UK at 7% among Scots in the regional vote, with the analysis suggesting this could lead to a return of nine MSPs – just one less than both the Scottish Greens and the Liberal Democrats.
The poll, meanwhile, put the SNP narrowly ahead of Labour in both the constituency and list vote with returns of 39 and 37 MSPs respectively.
The Conservatives returned 21 MSPs off the back of the analysis.
Ballot Box Scotland urged caution when it comes to the Norstat results, however, saying that they are "the only pollster finding this much support for Alba".
When it comes to the support for Reform UK, they added: "Ahead of 2016, their predecessor party Ukip had a run of polls suggesting they’d get into Holyrood.
"They got 2% and nowhere close.
"Likewise, under their previous title of the Brexit Party, at the peak of their relevance in summer 2019 they were projected to elect MSPs.
"2026 is a good while off, but my gut instinct is we’re just seeing the same thing: a spike in support and interest due to events at other levels of election, that won’t be sustained all the way to 2026."
It comes as Alex Salmond announced earlier this month that he wants to return to Holyrood and will contest the Banff and Buchan Coastal seat at the 2026 poll, but said he did not want to run in July’s General Election.
Speaking at a press conference in central London on June 5, Salmond also said “it is agonising” to see the SNP poll behind the Labour Party, saying they had “thrown away” his work in replacing them as the dominant force in Scottish politics.
Salmond said he had elected to run for Holyrood because Alba were more focused winning there than Westminster.
The party also announced its ambition to “secure 20 or more seats in the Scottish Parliament” at the next election.
Salmond said: “I shall be a candidate in the Banff and Buchan Coastal seat at the Scottish elections in 2026.
“From that candidacy and from that platform, I hope to lead Alba into an independence coalition in the Scottish Parliament, a coalition which will be serious about independence and serious about the achievement of independence.”
Commenting, Alba Party general secretary Chris McEleny said: “Alba have emerged as the only party seeking an independence mandate at each and every election and we will be the only party that has a General Election manifesto that includes a strategy to deliver independence.
“This poll shows what we have been picking up on the doors. As the only party with independence on the ballot we are becoming the natural home for independence supporters. Already this support would win us seats at the Scottish Parliament and it is now our aim to return a significant vote for independence at the Holyrood elections so that we can become part of a pro independence coalition to advance the cause of Scotland.”
