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Fortune
Fortune
Nathan Benaich, Nikola Mrkšić

‘AI rollup’ investors think services firms can trade more like software companies. Here’s what they get wrong

(Credit: getty images)

Across the technology investing world, investors are scaling their bets on a seductive thesis: Generative AI will transform low-margin service businesses into high-margin software companies. Several well-known platform venture firms have committed billions to this strategy and have begun to make their bets. Here’s how the thesis goes:

First, acquire traditional business process outsourcing (BPO) companies such as call centers and accounting firms at modest valuations of 1x revenue. These businesses typically operate at 10-15% EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins, weighed down by armies of human workers performing repetitive tasks, and automation faces the greatest structural resistance. 

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