Over the past 50 years, Brazil has emerged as one of the world’s agricultural giants. Becoming a leading global exporter of soybeans, beef, coffee and sugar has significantly boosted its economy and placed the country at the centre of the global food system. This agricultural development, however, has come at a cost.
The expansion of agriculture has driven the widespread conversion of natural vegetation into pastures, croplands, and forest plantations. Much of this expansion has occurred in areas that are critical for biodiversity conservation and terrestrial carbon storage. In the past 40 years alone, agricultural land has expanded by approximately 109 million hectares, an area nearly twice the size of metropolitan France. Brazil includes some of the world’s most important biodiversity hotspots. At the same time, its ecosystems are critical carbon sinks, storing vast amounts of carbon that are essential for mitigating climate change. The continuing pressure from agricultural expansion underscores the urgent need to reconcile production with biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration.
Our new study explores how future changes in land use in Brazil could affect biodiversity, the global climate, and the agricultural economy by 2050. We consider two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), each outlining a distinct potential future for the world and Brazil. Among these, SSP3 depicts a scenario characterised by regional rivalry, heavy reliance on fossil fuels, strong nationalism, and significant challenges to both climate mitigation and adaptation. Under this scenario, agricultural land in Brazil is expected to expand further due to rising food demand and only modest improvements in crop yields. In contrast, SSP1 represents a sustainable future, emphasising proactive climate mitigation and adaptation, clean energy adoption, and the protection of natural ecosystems. Under SSP1, agricultural land in Brazil is projected to contract, thanks to reduced food demand and substantial yield improvements.
