America’s oldest president was in the doldrums. Beset by partisan division, surging inflation, record high gas prices, a deadly pandemic, low approval ratings and a midterm backlash, he could have been forgiven for throwing in the towel. He did not. Ronald Reagan, to paraphrase his ideological ally Margaret Thatcher, was not for turning.
After a triumphant first year, having narrowly survived an assassin’s bullet and enacted major tax cuts, Reagan’s second year was an annus horribilis. In August 1982 he registered his lowest approval rating of 41%.
Frustrated Republicans and media pundits were united. The president was past his prime and not up to the job. He should not seek reelection. He should bow out gracefully.
Except that isn’t true. It never happened. Despite mounting political headwinds and policy headaches, no one suggested that Reagan should be kicked off the ticket. To voluntarily cede the authority of presidential incumbency would have been considered asinine.
How times change. Biden’s approval rating stands at 41%. America’s newest oldest president is beset by partisan division, surging inflation and gas prices, a deadly pandemic, and a relentless news drumbeat about a looming midterm backlash. So of course frustrated Democrats and media pundits insist he must go.
Their reasoning, and demands, are laughable. They reveal a clickbait commitment to historical ignorance and political naivety.
Let’s compare apples with apples. At the same point of Reagan’s first term, the US was mired in a deep recession. Having lingered in double digits during 1981, annualised inflation was down to 6.4% after the Federal Reserve’s Volcker Shock sent interest rates soaring above 20%. The cost was a postwar record unemployment rate of 9.8%, with a further 1.5 million discouraged workers who had given up excluded from this count. The effect on families and livelihoods was profound. Average gas prices were near record levels at $1.35 a gallon, equivalent to $4.70 a gallon today.
Reagan would have loved to have had Biden’s economy. Stimulated by the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (remember that?), the US has seen a swifter economic recovery under Biden than any previous era in US history. More than 10 million jobs have been created, with unemployment at 50-year lows of 3.5%. Fourteen states are reporting their lowest unemployment rates ever.
Inflation has surged to 9.1%, and is likely to remain a challenge in the near term. However, inflation is not confined to America. Many countries are faring worse, which is unsurprising given the global disruption and supply chain chaos inflicted upon integrated global trade by a once-in-a-century pandemic. Moreover average gas prices, having spiked from $3.54 a gallon before Putin’s attack on Ukraine to $5.03 in mid-June, have declined 40 days straight to $4.33 a gallon. This is an unprecedented plunge, and shows no signs of slowing.
Critics also claim Biden is showing his age, and that, if reelected to a second term at 82, these deficits would only worsen. They point to Biden’s “gaffes” as evidence that his mental faculties have diminished. It’s a slur, and it’s wrong. It’s true that Biden slips up sometimes when speaking. But he has dealt with a stutter all his life. A stutter is no sign of mental frailty.
Recall that in August 1984 Reagan joked off the cuff: “My fellow Americans, I am pleased to tell you today that I’ve signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.” This was at the height of the Cold War, when nuclear tensions were on hair-trigger alert. People were alarmed, but no one called him senile. Imagine the reaction if Biden said something similar today.
Another ageist critique levelled relates to life expectancy. Life expectancy for white males born in 1984 was 71.8. Reagan was already past that, but life remaining for white men his age averaged 11.6 more years. He lived another 20 years. According to the most recent data, life expectancy for white males born today (excluding excess deaths due to COVID) is now 76.3. For white men Biden’s age it averages 9.8 years. Biden is fitter and healthier at this stage of his presidency than Reagan was. He exercises daily and has no major health issues. Reagan had been shot! He was also later treated for colon cancer in 1985 and skin cancer in 1987 without any impact on his presidency.
In February 2020, pundits were drafting Biden’s political obituary after he finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. Then he stunned them by storming to victory in South Carolina, and never looked back. He went on to thump the incumbent president by seven million votes. Biden’s South Carolina victory was underwritten by Black Democratic voters. Black voters are essential to the Democratic coalition, yet amid the current navel-gazing and pontificating few are asking their opinions.
Instead the media obsesses over approval ratings and opinion polls. Their focus is nonstop negativity. Politics is treated as entertainment. Meanwhile Biden’s achievements get short shrift. The details of governance and policy that actually help people are left to the nerds.
The American Rescue Plan has been lost down the memory hole. The $1.2 trillion climate and infrastructure package, the largest such investment in US history, rates no mention, except by cynical Republican politicians who voted against it but now claim credit for it in their districts. The No Surprises Act that outlawed many of the worst features of America’s predatory medical billing practices would surprise most Americans if they were ever told about it. The reinvigoration of NATO to resist Putin’s aggression, after four years of insult and neglect under Trump, is greeted with a shrug.
Ignore the naysayers about Biden’s bid for a second term. The power of incumbency should not be underestimated. Sitting presidents are hard to defeat. It’s why the 22nd Amendment was passed after FDR’s record four wins.
The Oval Office affords tremendous advantages, including name recognition, party control, fundraising, and the bully pulpit. Presidents also command the spotlight, and can make decisions that improve their political prospects. In the entire 20th century, only five presidents lost their reelection race to their opponent. In the 21st century, only one has, and he lost to Biden.
In the 1982 midterms Republicans lost 27 seats in the House, thrashed by a 55%-43% margin. They eked out a stalemate in the Senate, holding on to their narrow majority. By January 1983, Reagan’s second anniversary in office, his approval rating was down to 35%. He went on to win reelection in a landslide, carrying a record 49 states. You can be sure Biden has not forgotten this lesson.
