It's been a soaking end to March for most of Australia — and early forecasts suggest the Easter long weekend could be a wash-out in the country's south-east — but hot, dry weather is just around the corner.
Despite the recent rain, the Bureau of Meteorology's three-month autumn outlook from April to June, paints a picture of a hot and parched country.
At best, Cape York Peninsula is likely to experience a wetter-than-normal April-to-June period, while Sydney and Hobart could go either way.
But for the vast majority of the country, the colour-coded outlook is a depressing slate of brown.
"For April to June, below median rainfall is likely to very likely for almost all of Australia," the BoM said.
Maximum temperatures are also projected to be warmer than normal across most of the country.
The outlook comes as the BoM officially declared the end to La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, and the increased prospect of El Nino this winter or spring.
El Nino is typically associated with warmer, drier weather for central and eastern Australia.
Rainfall eases in east, ramps up in WA
The rainfall and storm outbreak this week has filled gauges in parts of NSW to levels usually experienced over the course of a month.
Orange has already tallied more than 160 millimetres of rain this month, more than double the March average, while Tamworth has had its wettest March on record, according to the airport gauge.
BoM forecaster Jonathan How said the rain was carried on a stream of moisture being fed in from the country's north-west.
But he said it would ease from Thursday for the eastern states.
"In order for this to clear out, we will need to see the surface troughs finally move offshore, and it will do so late tonight [Wednesday]," Dr How said.
"So we will see an easing trend in the storm contracting to north-east NSW and Queensland from tomorrow."
However, Dr How said, much of Western Australia was set to be inundated.
"Rain across WA will become quite extensive," he said.
"From tomorrow, we will see showers pushed down in the Perth metro area with the possibility of a storm.
"And we do see rain extend into the Goldfields and the interior, and some showers pushing into southern NT and north-western parts of SA, but that mostly fizzles out into the weekend."
Potential wet start to Easter long-weekend
With just over a week until Good Friday, Dr How said early forecasts were suggesting a wet start to the Easter long weekend for south-eastern Australia.
But he said there was still "a lot of uncertainty" in the models.
"One of our models is suggesting a cut-off low pressure system over the south-east of the country, which could produce fairly widespread rain all the way from South Australia and into Victoria, NSW and southern Queensland," he said.
"But in world weather forecasting, it is more than a week away, so we definitely can't say with any kind of high confidence about that scenario."
The first official Easter forecast for Good Friday will be released on Saturday.
Dry autumn doesn't mean no rain
Dr How said the recent rainfall figures showed how much an individual weather event could change the outcome of the season.
But he said March overall had not been wet for everyone.
"It's been quite dry so far this month in inland NSW and particularly in western Victoria," he said.
"For example, Griffith has only seen 12 millimetres so far this month, contrasting with its neighbours further east who have seen hundreds."
He said it was important to remember an outlook of a dry autumn did not mean it would not rain at all.
"This is basically just saying it's unlikely to see median rainfall," he said.
"It doesn't mean we won't get any rainfall at all. That's a critical point."
