Factional power, the competition for the ideological soul of the New South Wales Liberal party and pragmatic considerations about toughness are likely to be on display as the party considers who should succeed Dominic Perrottet as leader after the election defeat last Saturday.
Most Liberal MPs spent Tuesday scrutineering, and the results of tight seats could play into the leadership.
Oatley, Miranda and Pittwater have been claimed by the party, which will boost moderate numbers in the party room. Ryde is also on a knife-edge.
A vote on the leadership is unlikely to take place until the count is finalised.
Three contenders have emerged so far but none has actively campaigned or even confirmed their willingness to put themselves forward.
They are the former attorney general Mark Speakman, the former sports minister Alister Henskens and the former planning minister Anthony Roberts.
One consideration will be whether the dominant faction in NSW – the moderates – will insist on reclaiming the leadership. Over the last two decades, the leader has usually come from their ranks.
However, Perrottet, a rightwinger, succeeded moderate Gladys Berejiklian as premier as a result of a deal crafted between the right and moderate factions.
Perrottet was a star performer and hard to overlook. Under a deal with moderate power broker Matt Kean, Perrottet became premier while Kean took the treasurer role.
The position would probably have been Kean’s for the asking after Perrottet said he would not stand again, but Kean has ruled himself out to spend time with his family. He is said to be eyeing a job in Canberra.
Speakman is the leading moderate in the race, but even some in his own faction fear he is too much of a “nice guy”.
He has led the charge within the party for reform of domestic violence laws including introducing the offence of coercive control after the deaths of several women in NSW at the hands of their partners. He’s also been seen as sympathetic to issues surrounding Indigenous justice.
But he was also the driving force behind tough anti-protest laws that introduced penalties of $22,000 fines and up to two years in jail, in after disruptions to transport and traffic by climate protesters.
Prior to being attorney general, Speakman served as environment minister and was senior counsel before entering parliament.
Henskens is also a senior barrister and is loosely aligned with the right. He is seen as a tougher parliamentary performer, but is not a household name.
As minister for science and innovation, he was described as an advocate for expert-led, informed policy in the innovation sector.
Finally, Roberts is of the right and has been in cabinet for a decade, most recently as planning minister. But choosing Roberts would be a strong statement on the direction of the party.
As planning minister he dismantled the policies of his predecessor, Rob Stokes, which were aimed at ensuring sustainable, energy-efficient housing in well-planned and serviced housing estates.
Roberts is pro-business and pro-development, and would probably take a sharp turn away from the direction Kean and Perrottet had been steering NSW on climate change and renewable energy.
Meanwhile, conservative MP Tanya Davies, who appeared at an anti vaccine-mandate rally last year where she criticised her own party, has thrown her hat into the ring to become the deputy leader.
A conservative Christian, Davies was one of the few Liberals who had a swing towards her in the newly drawn seat of Badgerys Creek. She was formerly the MP for Mulgoa and is a backbencher.
“I can offer the leadership and representation that the people of western Sydney and NSW more broadly demand,” she said on Tuesday.
“Western Sydney is the engine room of the NSW economy and it is critical the Liberal party has a spokesperson that can truly champion its people and their aspirations.”
Her main rival would probably be upper house MP Natalie Ward, the former minister for roads. But she is a moderate who hails from the northern beaches, and who is arguably in the wrong house.
Aside from gender and factional balance, the Liberals have been contemplating having someone from western Sydney in the leadership team as it is now the geographic heart of city and takes in a number of marginal seats.
Stuart Ayres, the outgoing deputy leader, lost his seat of Penrith on Saturday.
