A Canadian prime minister who has outstayed his welcome, persistent inflation, a government bumped and bruised by scandal and a fired-up opposition leader itching for a public showdown.
It was against this backdrop, four decades ago, that Pierre Trudeau took his apocryphal “walk in the snow” and decided not to contest the next federal election.
After a shocking upset in a “safe” electoral district and with a looming possibility of a blowout in the next federal election, Justin Trudeau’s predicament closely mirrors that of his father.
But the incumbent prime minister says he has no intention of stepping down, despite mounting evidence the public is growing increasingly weary of both his tenure – and of his Liberal party.
In late June, Trudeau’s party lost a byelection for a seat the party had held for nearly three decades, foreshadowing what pundits say could portend the collapse of the party’s stronghold in Canada’s most populous city.
The loss has prompted soul-searching within the Liberal party and renewed calls for a leadership change. Earlier this week, it was reported that Trudeau will not attend the Calgary Stampede which starts on Friday – the first time he will miss the festive, politically-charged 10-day celebration in the Conservative heartland since he became leader in 2013. (The Stampede was cancelled in 2020 and 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic.)
In an interview with CBC News on Monday, the first since his party’s stinging loss, Trudeau addressed his political future, saying he had no interest in stepping down.
“There’s always going to be lots of reflection after a tough loss. But there’s also so much to do and I am committed to doing the work of building a better Canada every single day,” he said.
Days later, he told reporters he didn’t want to “sugarcoat” the “challenging” loss.
As in the US, where Democrats are fretting that Joe Biden’s stumbling debate performance and concern over his age, Liberals are worried the once-popular Trudeau could be a liability for heading into the next federal election.
Lori Turnbull, director of Dalhousie University’s school of public administration, says part of Trudeau’s challenges lie in the reality that all parties – and leaders – eventually lose their shine. And poor poll numbers, something Trudeau is familiar with following a string of scandals over the years, are common.
“It’s not as if prime ministers are expected to resign if they’re not doing well in the polls. There’s no need to treat polling as though it’s gospel,” she said. “But it feels as though the challenges Trudeau is facing run deeper than poor numbers.”
Under a deal with the leftwing New Democratic party, known as a confidence and supply agreement, Trudeau is all but guaranteed to be able to stay in power until 2025. And the prime minister, who has led his Liberal party for more than a decade, has repeatedly said he wants to contest his fourth federal election – a national vote that is expected to be rife with mudslinging and personal attacks.
In recent months, support for his government has collapsed. The Liberals trail the rival Conservatives, who are widely favoured to form a majority government if an election is called soon.
In recent days, two former cabinet ministers, Catherine McKenna and Jody Wilson-Raybould, have called for Trudeau to step aside. Wayne Long, a Liberal MP from New Brunswick, has also publicly called for Trudeau to resign and to pave the way for a new leader.
“For the future of our party and for the good of our country, we need new leadership and a new direction,” Long wrote in an email to colleagues. “The voters have spoken loud and clear they want change. I agree.”
But, as with the Democratic party in the United States, there is no heir-apparent in the Liberal party, complicating any transition. A number of Trudeau’s ministers are considered possible candidates, as is former Bank of England governor Mark Carney.
“A new leader might be worse than keeping Trudeau. Imagine they go through the work of finding someone fresh and then the election result is still terrible. You’ve kind of wasted someone’s political career. Whoever loses the next election for the Liberals is probably not coming back from it,” said Turnbull. “And so the party might be in a situation where they know people don’t want Trudeau, but he’s actually the best bet. He’s a very polarizing person – but polarizing means that some people like you and will show up for you.”
While the party is set to meet in August, a group of Liberals have asked Trudeau for a national, in-person caucus meeting sooner in order to discuss the party’s future.
The prime minister hasn’t responded to calls from frustrated lawmakers to meet to discuss the party’s future. While the he told reporters Wednesday he was personally calling MPs, tensions are clearly mounting within the Liberals, and a growing number fear the unpopular leader could cost them their own seats in parliament.
“At a certain point, a situation where caucus is panicking and getting frustrated is not tenable. You need to get your legitimacy from somewhere and you can’t ignore the calls from caucus,” said Turnbull. “If caucus is really is serious about making a statement here, and they want this to change, I think Trudeau either has to meet them and take what comes – or call an election.”
