If Rishi Sunak had clung to power until the very end of the five-year term that Boris Johnson won in 2019, he would still be prime minister today. He had until 28 January next year to hold the election. The equivalent deadline for Keir Starmer is 21 August 2029. That is a horizon beyond the reach of reliable political forecasting, even if the second half of this decade turns out less volatile than the first. More turbulence seems likelier.
But Labour’s majority is much bigger than the one Sunak lost and Starmer’s character contains none of the traits that made Johnson such a wellspring of chaos. With just 121 Tory MPs, Kemi Badenoch will struggle to have much impact in parliament. She must also compete for relevance and attention with Nigel Farage, puffed up on proximity to Donald Trump.
