Israel is enjoying a moment of military and intelligence triumph. Over two weeks, it has killed an “archenemy” in his secret bunker, decimated Hezbollah’s leadership, blown up the militant group’s communications networks and parts of its arsenal and humbled its sponsor, Iran.
As its ground troops marched into Lebanon, Israel fended off a large-scale Iranian ballistic missile attack with backing from the US and other allies.
Some in the Israeli government clearly want to go even further, seeing a moment that could be exploited to reshape the Middle East. Hawks argue that Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel gives the country greater legitimacy to attack directly and not only target Iranian proxies.
Less clear is where they expect a broader Israeli campaign to lead. Israel’s political and military leadership tacitly acknowledged that they could not destroy Hezbollah when they laid out their limited goals for Operation “Northern Arrows”.
It aims to allow residents of northern Israel to return to areas that came under Hezbollah attack after 7 October. In Gaza, by contrast, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, says the war must continue until “total victory” over Hamas.
The assassination of the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was a tactical achievement that will hobble the group for now, and may cripple it longer term, but not a strategic one that will eliminate the threat to Israel from inside Lebanon.
Israel has targeted generations of militant leaders, whose organisations survived or evolved after the assassinations. Both Nasrallah and the Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, killed earlier this year in Tehran, replaced leaders who had also been killed by Israel.
Attacks of the last few weeks have been particularly wide-ranging, taking out whole echelons of Hezbollah commanders. But even if the damage proved fatal to the group in its current form, its collapse would not offer any guarantee of greater security.
After the Palestine Liberation Organisation was forced out of Lebanon in the early 1980s, Hezbollah expanded there. Other conflicts offer grim examples.
Islamic State grew out of al-Qaida in Iraq. The US killed the Taliban leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, in 2016 with a drone, hoping to pave the way for a peace deal; five years later, Taliban fighters swept into Kabul and took control of the country.
Nor do Israel’s destructive opening salvoes against Hezbollah offer any guarantee it will win a longer war. In 2003, the US-led invasion of Iraq swiftly toppled Saddam Hussein but paved the way for a bloody civil war and the rise of factions linked to Washington’s regional foe, Iran.
George W Bush’s declaration of victory under a “Mission Accomplished” banner on an aircraft carrier was intended as an enduring image of American power, and became instead a icon of US hubris.
Israel has an almost insurmountable advantage over Hezbollah and Iran in long-distance aerial attacks, advanced technology and espionage.
Now that Israeli troops are going into Lebanon, however, their military advantages may diminish. On the ground the militant group can deploy fighters hardened by years of combat in Syria, who have dug tunnel networks into rolling hills where they know every inch of the terrain.
By Wednesday evening the ground operation was less than two days old, but eight Israeli soldiers had been killed and several others injured. It was a bloody start to the Jewish new year.
“Where is Israel heading, when the only horizon its leaders offer is war?” Haaretz newspaper asked in an editorial to mark the holiday. “We can only hope that in the coming year we will be blessed with a profound change in leadership and a new vision for the country.”
A focus on short-term tactical goals has marked Netanyahu’s command of the war in Gaza too, despite pressure from his closest ally, the US, and from inside Israel.
The unity government formed after the 7 October attacks collapsed when Benny Gantz, a member and Netanyahu’s leading rival, demanded a plan for the territory’s postwar future. When the prime minister refused, he left the war cabinet.
The humanitarian catastrophe unleashed by that campaign has isolated Israel internationally as it faces Iran, even if there are many rulers in the region who may privately cheer anything that weakens Tehran.
Jordan shares a border with Israel, has normalised diplomatic ties and in April joined the military coalition defending it from Iranian missile attacks.
As Israel prepared to enter Lebanon, Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, questioned if his neighbour was seeking security or military supremacy.
“The Israeli prime minister came here today and said that Israel is surrounded by those who want to destroy it,” Safadi told journalists at the UN, speaking for the 57 member countries of the Muslim-Arab committee.
“I can tell you very unequivocally, all of us are willing to right now guarantee the security of Israel in the context of Israel ending the occupation and allowing for the emergence of an independent Palestinian state.
“If he does not want the two-state solution, can you ask the Israeli officials what is their endgame, other than just wars and wars and wars?”
