Afghanistan is on a precipice. The effects of severe famine and starvation, as well as the adverse impact of climate change, poor governance and rampant unemployment, point to a coming humanitarian catastrophe. The end result: more people displaced and forced to migrate.
Since the beginning of 2021, some 550,000 Afghans have fled their homes, bringing the number of internally displaced people to at least 4.2 million. The COVID-19 pandemic, the spring drought of 2021, persisting political insecurities and increased violence have made the crisis more acute. Import restrictions due to COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis have worsened food security, with close to 22 million people critically food insecure, further fuelling displacement. Despite playing almost no negative or destructive role in global warming, Afghanistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change. It is also among the least equipped to handle its impact. Temperatures are on the rise and mean rainfall has been decreasing in Afghanistan, adding conflict over scarce resources to the country’s many existing challenges. The consequences of climate change such as drought, flood, avalanches, landslides, earthquakes and extreme weather are causing mass displacement, conflict and child marriage, and have even seen people resort to selling their children. Only around 12 percent of Afghanistan’s land is arable, and the southern, eastern and central parts of the country are vulnerable to droughts; the northern and north-western provinces witness seasonal floods. These droughts and floods have increased in frequency in recent years, driving people from their homes. Nearly 80 percent of conflict in rural areas is over land, water and resources. Agriculture is a vital part of the country’s economy and, according to the World Bank, used to account for roughly 26 percent of gross domestic product. But Afghanistan’s water resources are the most vulnerable to climate change, adversely affecting agriculture productivity. A reduction in rainfall has caused a decrease in the capacities of pastures, impacting livestock production.
Climate change is exacerbating the threats already posed by poverty, weak institutional structures, mistrust between communities, and inadequate access to information and resources.
