The far-right populist Alternative für Deutschland party has been narrowly beaten in its first electoral test since revelations came to light of its involvement in a plan for the mass deportation of foreigners that has sparked huge protests across Germany. Its candidate lost against a conservative rival in a district administrative election the importance of which resonated far beyond the local area.
In a tight second-round runoff in the district of Saale-Orla in the south-eastern state of Thuringia, the AfD candidate, Uwe Thrum, had victory snatched from him by his Christian Democrat (CDU) rival Christian Herrgott by 4.6 percentage points.
The vote, in which about 66,000 people were eligible to cast their ballot, was seen as a gauge as to whether the mobilisation of civil society against the anti-immigrant AfD since the recent revelations about the deportation plan had dented or bolstered the party’s popularity.
Thrum secured 47.7% of the vote, against Herrgott’s 52.3%%. Two weeks ago, Thrum gained 45.7% of the vote to Herrgott’s 33%. The CDU man was thought to have little chance of catching up.
A cross-party mobilisation of voters in the past fortnight in an attempt to keep the AfD out of power resulted in a higher turnout of 69%, enabling Herrgott, who has local roots, to make the gains necessary to defeat his rival.
Observers were watching closely to see whether both AfD and CDU voters would react to the national debate by coming out in larger numbers or if far-right party’s supporters would shy away. The higher the turnout, the more chance the CDU was thought to have.
The vote is being viewed as the prelude to a “super” election year for a state governed by a fragile alliance under Bodo Ramelow of his far-left Die Linke, the Social Democrats and the Greens. European elections are due in June, as well as polls for most councils, mayors and district authority positions, where the AfD, polling at about 36% in the state, could make considerable gains.
State elections in September are seen as the kickoff for a new parliamentary election in 2025.
Other mainstream parties have pledged not to go into government with the AfD, which will keep it out of power. But the question being asked is for how long such a position will be sustainable.
This month, investigative journalists revealed that high-ranking members of the AfD had discussed plans for the mass expulsion of foreigners and unassimilated citizens from Germany in the event of the party securing power. The AfD figures joined members of the neo-Nazi scene, CDU supporters and businesses known to finance the far right at a villa in Potsdam in November. They were there to hear Martin Sellner, a leader of the Austrian far-right extremist Identitarian movement, expound on the philosophy of so-called “remigration”, or mass displacement, and the feasibility of implementing it.
The AfD’s leadership has distanced itself from the policy and accused its opponents of leading a smear campaign against it.
The revelations have sparked an unrelenting wave of protests across Germany, in which more than a million people have participated. The uproar has spilled over into Austria, where anti-far-right rallies were held in three cities over the weekend.
Support for the AfD in Saale-Orla appeared to have shrunk last week by about 1.5%, but with 21.5%, it is the second most popular party in the district after the CDU, and well ahead of all three parties of the German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left coalition, which together are polling at about 32%.
The Saale-Orla vote was being viewed very closely by the political world. It follows a similar election in Thuringia last summer in which the AfD candidate, Robert Sesselmann, won the party’s first county administrator post in Sonneberg. The victory, in a town of 56,800, was seen as a symbolic milestone for the party.
That win was praised by Björn Höcke, the AfD leader in Thuringia who is viewed as the party’s most extreme figurehead and is under surveillance by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. Standing alongside Sesselmann and the federal party co-leader Tino Chrupalla, he told supporters: “This is just the beginning.”
In July, the AfD won the mayoral position in the town of Raguhn-Jeßnitz. It went on to lose two subsequent positions for mayor and council head, before an independent candidate backed by the party secured a mayoral post in Pirna in December.
Like Sonneberg, Saale-Orla is typical of other AfD stomping grounds. It is rural, sparsely populated, and lacking infrastructure. Wages are low, and many are forced to commute to the neighbouring prosperous state of Bavaria for work. Polls indicate that local anger towards the Ramelow administration in the Thuringian capital, Erfurt, as well as towards the federal government in Berlin, is higher than elsewhere in eastern Germany.
Thrum, 49, a qualified carpenter, is viewed as a close disciple of Höcke’s and more radical than Sesselmann, who openly rubs shoulders with rightwing extremist groups including the Reichsbürger movement. By his own admission, Thrum has had contact with the self-declared Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss, a figurehead in a plot to overturn the government that was exposed in December 2022.
Thrum campaigned on issues such as reducing tax, illegal immigration, banning inclusive language and reducing defence spending.
Höcke had said a victory for Thrum would be a barometer of the AfD’s chances of winning September’s poll, which would in turn be used as a springboard into the federal government, which the federal party co-leader Alice Weidel said last week would be possible from 2029.
“From our position in the east, we will change the entire republic,” Höcke said, predicting his own election as head of the state by the end of the year.
According to the news magazine Spiegel, Germany’s federal police have put out a wanted notice for Sellner. He could be refused entry into Germany as he is considered a threat to public order.
On Saturday, a new leftwing party led by a popular former Die Linke figurehead held its first national congress. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), named after its leader, hopes to lure voters from both the far right and the far left. The BSW has about 8% support and could make an impact on elections in three eastern states including Thuringia in the autumn. It promises to speak for people who do not feel they are represented by the other parties, and to increase pensions and decrease defence spending.
