Analyzing the divisions within the AFC is much more relevant for Kansas City Chiefs fans than guessing what will happen in the NFC.
The AFC North, in particular, could go multiple ways, and all of the division’s teams have a route to winning a coveted playoff spot.
Top to bottom it is among the best groups in the NFL. Each team can compete for a Lombardi Trophy in 2023, and all are capable of winning their division.
Check out our predictions for the AFC North below, and see which teams could threaten the Chiefs in a potential playoff matchup:
1. Cincinnati Bengals: 12-5
Based on recency bias, the Bengals are the easy pick to end up on top of the AFC North in 2023.
Cincinnati has the best quarterback in the division with Joe Burrow leading an offense that includes Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon.
Burrow did suffer an injury scare during training camp and has not been able to practice since. A calf strain can linger longer than expected, but the 26-year-old quarterback should be ready for week one against the Browns.
The Bengals improved their offensive line by signing left tackle Orlando Brown to a four-year, $64 million deal. Brown may not be athletic enough to be one of the best left tackles in the league, but he is an upgrade over what Cincinnati was dealing with last year.
As long as the offensive line is serviceable and able to keep Burrow upright, the quarterback will be able to dice up defenses throughout the season.
Jessie Bates’ departure to Atlanta is an underrated loss on the defense, but the Bengals should be able to absorb Bates’ absence. Second-year defensive back Dax Hill will step into the free safety role, which Bates occupied for multiple seasons.
If the Bengals can leave the first two games of the season at 2-0 or 1-1 (at Cleveland and vs. Baltimore), Cincinnati have a comfortable four-week stretch that includes the Rams, Titans, Cardinals, and Seahawks before a bye in week seven.
Outside of the Chiefs, the Bengals are the next powerhouse in the AFC and should be viewed as one for the foreseeable future with Burrow behind center.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL. In Tomlin’s tenure with Pittsburgh, the team has never finished a season with a record below .500.
This may come as a surprise with the likes of the two other quarterbacks in the division that have not been named yet, Kenny Pickett finished last season on a high note.
After going through the expected rookie growing pains, Pickett led the Steelers to six wins in the final seven weeks.
Last season, Pickett was sacked 27 times through 13 games, but the Steelers addressed their offensive line this offseason. Pittsburgh traded up to pick 14 to select Georgia left tackle Broderick Jones. The former Bulldog will be a great addition to the Steelers’ offensive line, providing stability for Pickett’s blindside.
George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Allen Robinson, Najee Harris, and Jaylen Warren are the top weapons on this offense and will provide Pickett with more than enough to move the ball.
Defense is what Pittsburgh has been known for since Ben Roethlisberger started to decline about five years ago. When T.J. Watt plays, the Steelers are virtually unbeatable – 53-24-2 when Watt plays and 1-10 when he doesn’t – it’s a reason why the Steelers are a great pick to win week one at home against the 49ers.
After week one, which the Steelers can definitely win, Pittsburgh then has a slate of Cleveland, Las Vegas, Houston, and Baltimore. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that the Steelers are 5-0 or 4-1 going into their week six bye.
Stability, competent quarterback play, and a strong defense are why Pittsburgh is in this spot in the AFC North.
3. Baltimore Ravens: 9-8
The Ravens have most of the same attributes that the Steelers have, but one thing that the team has lacked over the last few seasons is health.
Lamar Jackson has missed the end of the last two seasons, only playing in 24 total games over those seasons.
Baltimore bolstered its wide receiver corps with the draft selection of Zay Flowers and the signing of Odell Beckham Jr. Jackson will now be surrounded by the likes of Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, J.K. Dobbins, Flowers, and Beckham Jr.
Although that is clearly an upgraded group of weapons for Jackson, availability remains a problem. Bateman suffered a Lisfranc injury last season, and just returned to training camp a little over a week ago. Beckham’s career has been riddled with injuries and he did not play last season.
Jackson has been unavailable during the home stretch in each of the last two seasons. J.K. Dobbins was coming off a torn ACL and MCL last season, and he has been absent from camp, as he has been seeking a contract extension. Virtually all of the top players that the Ravens are depending on have an injury history and face multiple question marks.
The hiring Todd Monken has provided a ton of optimism about what the offense may look like, but having an air-raid offense does not necessarily translate to winning football.
Jackson is a capable passer, but not sure if his can effectiveness in games with 40-45 dropbacks remains to be seen. In the Ravens’ new offensive system, expect Jackson’s interceptions to increase. Over the last two seasons where Jackson played a total of 24 games, the quarterback threw 20 interceptions in a run-first offense. This does not mean Jackson is incapable of leading an aggressive offense, but throwing the ball more doesn’t automatically make the team better overall.
If Baltimore’s top players weren’t so injury prone it would be tough not to have the Ravens as the first or second team in this division. However, availability is a major part of success in the NFL, and it is something tough to buy into when it comes to Baltimore.
4. Cleveland Browns: 7-10
A team has to finish last in this division, and as disappointing as it would be for Browns fans, their team makes the most sense in this spot.
Deshaun Watson can easily make this prediction look foolish, but it is not entirely clear that he will return to form to become the player he was in Houston. Sitting out for nearly two years of football can lead to a major drop in production.
Last year there were six games where the $230 million quarterback completed only 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,102 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions. Watson will be entering 2023 after a full offseason that helped him gain familiarity and understanding of Kevin Stefanski’s scheme.
Something that has been puzzling is the lack of preseason reps that Watson and the first-team offense have taken. After playing only one series in the preseason opener, Stefanski gave Watson zero snaps in the second preseason game.
Nonetheless, Cleveland does possess a very compelling roster with Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku surrounding Watson. The defense should be also much improved from last season with Myles Garrett leading the way.
The talent on this team is unquestioned, but it all comes down to how well Watson can execute the offense while providing off-schedule plays from time to time. If the 27-year-old quarterback can be 85-90 percent the player he was for the Texans, this Browns team can be very competitive in 2023.
It is important to note that Cleveland’s first three of four games feature AFC North opponents. A tough early schedule for a team that may be still trying to figure things out. Cleveland does not catch a break after its week five bye – the Browns host the 49ers in week six. It could be a disastrous start for Cleveland.
There are two obvious candidates who can prevent the Chiefs from reaching Super Bowl
In terms of what teams can be roadblocks to the Chiefs returning to the Super Bowl, all of these teams have the capability of being pests for Kansas City in potential playoff matchups.
The Bengals and Ravens, if fully healthy, can give the Chiefs issues.
It’s obvious why the Bengals are threats to Kansas City’s Super Bowl aspirations. The teams have met in the AFC title game in each of the last two seasons. The Chiefs-Bengals rivalry is probably the most compelling one in the NFL, but before Kansas City’s AFC Championship victory over Cincinnati, this matchup could not be considered a rivalry.
Although the Ravens are predicted to finish third in the AFC North, much of that doubt has to do with health. If the Ravens can stay healthy and execute their offense efficiently, then there is no doubt this team can be a Super Bowl contender.
