For 20 years, the AFC East was a certainty. The Patriots would win it, and the other three teams would stink.
In 2023, the AFC East is a certainty once more. The Patriots are ticketed for last place, while the other three will all compete for the division crown.
The Bills, Dolphins and Jets are all legitimate contenders, with Buffalo trying to win its fourth consecutive Eastern title. Of course, the division’s biggest offseason story is the addition on Broadway of Aaron Rodgers, a 39-year-old quarterback with four MVPs and a Lombardi Trophy to his name. Then there are the Dolphins, who hired Vic Fangio as their defensive coordinator and gave him star corner Jalen Ramsey as a shiny toy to deploy.
Here’s how we see each AFC East team’s offseason, grades and all:
New England Patriots
Key additions: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, CB Christian Gonzalez, OLB Keion White, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Riley Reiff, RB James Robinson
Key subtractions: WR Jakobi Meyers, RB Damien Harris, TE Jonnu Smith, S Devin McCourty
Where they stand: The Patriots are in a very unusual spot. They’re considered the worst team in the AFC East.
New England has a living legend in coach Bill Belichick on the sideline, and now there's a traditional offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien instead of last year’s choice (Matt Patricia). The Patriots are hoping the choice will jump-start third-year quarterback Mac Jones, who threw for 2,997 yards, 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last year. Jones wasn't given much help on the field, though. New England added Smith-Schuster but lost Meyers to free agency, making that their one major move.
If there's true hope for the Patriots to make a move toward the postseason, it lies with the defense. Up front, the combination of Josh Uche and Matthew Judon off the edge is one of the league's best, and it now adds second-round pick White. In the secondary, first-round pick Gonzalez will be an immediate asset, playing alongside a hoard of Joneses, including Jack, Jonathan and Marcus.
With Belichick, the Patriots are always a tough opponent. The defense will also keep them in most games. The concern is whether New England can score enough points with Mac Jones and limited weapons to deploy.
Projected win total: 7.5
Odds to win the AFC East: +750
Final grade: C+
It's hard to give the Patriots a better grade after watching the offense flounder in 2022 and then see the front office do virtually nothing to upgrade it in the offseason.
After a quiet free-agency period, many thought New England would be aggressive in adding offensive firepower in the draft. Instead, the Patriots’ first three picks were a corner, edge rusher and linebacker. While the defense should be stout, the offense will rely heavily on situational football and running back Rhamondre Stevenson. In an age of pass-happy football and a loaded AFC, that’s a tough way to live.
Buffalo Bills
Key additions: WR Trent Sherfield, S Taylor Rapp, TE Dalton Kincaid, G O'Cyrus Torrence, DT Poona Ford, RB Damien Harris, G Connor McGovern
Key subtractions: WR Isaiah McKenzie, LB Tremaine Edmunds, RB Devin Singletary, G Rodger Saffold
Where they stand: The Bills are in the midst of a contention window, but they also find themselves in somewhat of an odd spot: Last season, Buffalo was the heavy favorite to win its first Super Bowl in franchise history; instead, the Bills were blown out at home by the Bengals in the divisional round.
Now, they come back with largely the same team. Pro Bowl linebacker Edmunds left in free agency, but the rest of the core is still intact. Quarterback Josh Allen remains a top-three talent at the league’s paramount position, Stefon Diggs is a top-10 receiver and the offensive line is solid. The Bills are also hoping a strong draft led by Kincaid and Torrence can put an already strong unit over the proverbial top.
For coach Sean McDermott, the challenge this season also includes winning a much stronger AFC East. Buffalo’s schedule is incredibly challenging, with 10 games against the AFC and NFC Eastern divisions, along with contests against the Jaguars, Chiefs and Bengals. It won’t be easy, but if Buffalo can finally secure home field advantage for the first time since 1993, it would be a huge step toward finally getting back to Super Sunday.
Projected win total: 10.5
Odds to win the AFC East: +130
Final grade: B
The offseason was largely, and predictably, quiet. The Bills spent big last winter, inking edge rusher Von Miller to a six-year, $120 million deal. Buffalo didn't have much room under the salary cap this season and therefore relied on its draft to be the main source of improvement.
General manager Brandon Beane has put together a top-five team. At this juncture, it’s more about execution and not losing bizarre regular-season games—see the Vikings in 2022 and the Jaguars in ’21—because this year, it could be the difference between a No. 1 seed and being a wild-card team.
Miami Dolphins
Key additions: CB Jalen Ramsey, LB David Long Jr., LB Malik Reed, WR Braxton Berrios
Key subtractions: WR Trent Sherfield, TE Mike Gesicki, QB Teddy Bridgewater
Where they stand: The Dolphins have been slowly improving over the last three years under general manager Chris Grier.
After adding quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and receiver Jaylen Waddle in the first round of the 2020 draft, the Dolphins made a trio of major trades to acquire star receiver Tyreek Hill, edge rusher Bradley Chubb and corner Jalen Ramsey. Add in some wise free-agent signings such as linebackers Long and Reed, and Miami's roster is ready to make a push.
All those moves resulted in a strong roster with some pressure to win now, but they also meant the Dolphins drafted a minuscule class this offseason. Hill, Chubb and Ramsey are all expensive (along with left tackle Terron Armstead), while Tagovailoa and Waddle are extension eligible. There’s also a strong chance this will be corner Xavien Howard’s last year in South Beach.
Under second-year coach Mike McDaniel and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, the Dolphins have the right men on the sideline to both scheme and play-call against even the best opponents. The big questions are whether Tagovailoa can stay healthy and whether the defense can live up to its potential.
There’s no reason the Dolphins can’t push the Bills—and perhaps surpass them.
Projected win total: 9.5
Odds to win the AFC East: +290
Final grade: A-
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
This offseason saw Miami add ample defensive talent highlighted by Ramsey and Fangio, moves that should fix what was a leaky unit in 2022. In a division with so many quality receivers, the duo of Ramsey and Howard will be critical for the Dolphins to succeed.
Again, Miami has enough talent to win the loaded AFC East, but it all starts with Tagovailoa. If he can stay healthy, the Dolphins will have one of the league’s best offenses, loaded with speed (Hill and Waddle) on the outside and Raheem Mostert in the backfield. Factor in McDaniel’s scheme, and Miami should have many games with 30-plus points.
New York Jets
Key additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, OLB Will McDonald IV, C Joe Tippmann, WR Mecole Hardman, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb
Key subtractions: WR Elijah Moore
Where they stand: For the first time since Brett Favre arrived in 2008, the Jets have a future Hall of Famer at quarterback—and it’s none other than Favre’s replacement with the Packers, Rodgers.
Rodgers comes to the Jets as a year-by-year prospect, with both sides having plenty to prove. For New York, it’s about making the playoffs for the first time since 2010, and then making noise once there. For Rodgers, it’s trying to bounce back from a campaign that saw Green Bay go 8–9, while Rodgers threw for only 3,695 yards and 26 touchdowns.
In Gotham, Rodgers is surrounded by better (and some familiar) talent at receiver, led by second-year man Garrett Wilson. Wilson starred as a rookie despite horrid quarterback play, catching 83 passes for 1,103 yards and four scores. He's flanked this year by Hardman, Lazard, Corey Davis and Cobb.
Defensively, the Jets are stacked. They have a bevy of difference-makers in the front seven, including linebackers McDonald, C.J. Mosley and Carl Lawson, along with lineman Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers. In the secondary, Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed form one of the league’s best duos at corners.
Simply put, the Jets are a contender for the first time in over a decade.
Projected win total: 9.5
Odds to win the AFC East: +250
Final grade: A
The Jets aren’t an afterthought anymore. They’re now under the microscope, and they’ll feel pressure from the minute training camp starts.
New York is expected to not only make the playoffs but also win once there. The first step is winning the AFC East, which won’t be easy with loaded Dolphins and Bills rosters. (Belichick and the Patriots always represent a tough challenge as well.) If the Jets win the divisional crown, it’ll have everything to do with the acquisition of Rodgers and the other ancillary moves made in the offseason by general manager Joe Douglas.
