A rapid drop in household gas use could force closures of network sections a decade from now, long before a planned 2045 shut down, a new government discussion paper warns.
"The sections likely to be shut down first are those which have become economically unviable with few remaining customers, low utilisation and are not critical to the operation of other sections," the paper said.
Total gas emissions have dropped by 22 per cent in the past two years and the average amount of gas used by household customers has fallen by 44 per cent between 2010 and 2024, the government said.
But the ACT does not want to ban selling new gas appliances in the lead up to switching off the network by 2045 and will instead prefer to encourage customers not to buy new gas equipment, like heaters, stoves and ovens.
The government is seeking feedback on options to help phase out gas use in the territory, a commitment made in 2022. New houses have been banned from having a gas connection for more than three years.
Climate Change Minister Suzanne Orr said the government would work with the community to transition away from fossil fuel gas.
"We want to help support the uptake of electric appliances while supporting Canberrans to choose options backed by cheaper, 100 per cent renewable energy," Ms Orr said.
"Supporting the uptake of electric appliances will help our city to reach net zero emissions by 2045, as well as ease cost-of-living pressures and help Canberrans save on energy costs over time."
Ms Orr last month told The Canberra Times support for apartment buildings to switch off gas would be made permanent in the ACT as she unveiled an updated climate change strategy for the territory.
Evoenergy, which operates the ACT's gas network, estimates about 40,000 customers - about a third - will stop using gas between now and 2031.
The operator has projected a 24 per cent decline in total gas use across the network in the same period, with the biggest drops expected among household gas users, the government said.
Retailers could be forced to provide information about the impending gas shut-off to customers buying gas appliances, the discussion paper said, following point-of-sale information that was mandated ahead of the ACT's 2011 plastic shopping bag ban.
"This information might be useful for customers taking a considered decision to upgrade appliances as part of a renovation or generally inform the community when window shopping," the paper said.
The discussion paper said the government could consider banning new gas appliances from being installed in areas marked for the shut off of the gas network, and sought feedback on what types of appliances the government should regulate.
"We could introduce regulation based on a trigger event of a section of the network being deemed unviable, ensuring gas appliances are not installed in locations losing access to fuel in the near term," the paper said.
"However, it would only be a barrier to installations within a relatively short notification period in comparison to gas appliance life, which can be 10 years or more."
The government could also regulate what gas fitters are allowed to install in the ACT, which had the potential to be a "highly complex" approach that could phase in bans on different types of appliances.
"There is potential to phase prohibitions in line with the expected life of the gas assets to balance the risk of asset stranding against the rate of change from regulation," the paper said.
"For example, appliances generally seeing constant use in a commercial kitchen may have a shorter expected life than cooking appliances for a residential kitchen which may only be used once a day."
The government is also considering minimum standards for rental properties that would require landlords to replace gas appliances with electric equivalents as part of efforts to ensure vulnerable people are not left behind in the transition from gas.
"This standard setting approach can place requirements for a range of property types, and if applied at a change of tenancy, it allows upgrades to occur when the property is not occupied," the paper said.
"This form of regulation would provide a benefit to renters, who have limited agency in relation to decisions on appliance choice in rental properties. It is not appropriate for owner occupier properties, as it only operates in relation to tenancy agreements."
Gas fitters would be affected by future restrictions on gas appliances and installations but a small proportion were completing most of the work and most were offering gas-fitting services as an "add on rather than as their primary business", the paper said.
In December, there were about 1680 gas fitter licences and 170 gas appliance worker licences active in the ACT, but works notification data showed only about 250 licensed gas tradespeople completely gas fitting or appliance work in 2024 and 2025. About 50 licences submitted 10 or more works notices each year.
"This suggests that less than 15 per cent of licensed gas fitters and gas appliance workers are undertaking any gas fitting work," the paper said.
Master Plumbers ACT chief executive Joe Prevedello said the government needed to recognise an enormous ongoing demand for natural gas and appliances across homes and businesses.
"There's still around 150,000 gas customers in the ACT and Queanbeyan region and assuming each have 1 to 3 gas appliances, that's a lot of maintenance and installation work that needs to be carried out by qualified gasfitters, let alone the extra work that will be required for any staged shutdown once it accelerates," Mr Prevedello said.
"It's essential that there's still a strong pipeline of qualified gas professionals coming through and they shouldn't be deterred from what is a fulfilling career choice."
Mr Prevedello said the government should think harder about the consequences of shutting down the network.
Consultation on the discussion paper is open until September 16.
