HARRISBURG, Pa. — It was the U.S. Supreme Court decision that Republicans had been seeking for 50 years. But its timing couldn't have been worse, some political analysts told the Post-Gazette following Friday's landmark ruling.
Before the high court overturned abortion as a constitutional right, Republicans were expecting a big sweep in November's midterm elections. Democrats, after all, continue to fail to address record-high inflation and gas prices.
But the ruling now gives Democrats an issue that they can use to turn out voters in their favor, the experts said.
Pennsylvania is one of 28 remaining states that will continue to allow most abortions; here, it's up to 24 weeks into a pregnancy. Even before Friday's decision, the state already had two of the most-watched races in the country, including one for a U.S. Senate seat that could potentially flip control of the chamber.
Now, abortion access will be front-and-center as an issue in Pennsylvania leading up to the general election in November. In addition to the Senate race, whoever wins the governorship will wield the veto pen — a defense current Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, has used to block abortion-restricting legislation during his two terms in office.
"While it's a terrible decision by the Supreme Court and terrible for our country, politically it's really going to help (Democrats)," said Mike Mikus, a Pittsburgh-based Democratic strategist.
A sole issue
The Republican gubernatorial nominee, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, wants Pennsylvania to ban abortion after six weeks into a pregnancy, or the time when a fetal heartbeat can be detected. He does not support any exception, including in instances of rape, incest or if the life of the mother is in danger. The Democratic nominee, state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, said he would veto any bill that would restrict abortion in the state.
The Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, opposes any legislative effort to restrict abortion in the country. He supports ending the filibuster to achieve this and other top Democratic policies. Republican nominee and celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz has said he believes "life begins at conception," but he supports some exceptions to an abortion ban in the case of rape, incest or risk to the mother's life.
Each candidate's stance will be under the microscope as Democrats work to redirect the election to this sole issue.
"If this were an ideal world, (Republicans) wouldn't have wanted this decision now, and wanted it next June or sometime after the election," said Clifford Bob, the chair of Duquesne University's political science department. "It gives the Democrats an issue that they are going to really want to talk about, while things like the economy or inflation they're trying to avoid talking about."
Pennsylvania Democrats already have an edge, with 543,000 more registered voters than Republicans. Both sides will fight for the votes of nearly 1.3 million people registered as independents.
This means GOP candidates may need to tweak their message in a general election, as Oz has already started to do. Last week, Axios reported that he has begun wiping his website and social posts of his endorsement by former President Donald Trump, who lost by 80,000 votes in Pennsylvania in 2020.
Franklin & Marshall College polls since 2010 have shown that more than 50% of Pennsylvania voters support abortion under certain circumstances, with growing support for abortion to be legal under any circumstance. In a poll last month, 31% of likely voters said they supported it under any circumstance, and 54% said they supported it under some circumstances. Fourteen percent said they believed it should be illegal in all circumstances.
After the Supreme Court ruling was released, Mastriano shared a number of posts celebrating the decision. His official statement said Roe v. Wade was "rightly relegated to the ash heap of history."
He then quickly turned to criticize Democrats for inflation and high gas prices, issues "people care deeply about." Shapiro immediately released a statement promising to veto any abortion bills if elected governor.
"It's clear — even Doug Mastriano wanting to talk about other issues tells just how bad of an issue (abortion) is for Republicans," Mikus said.
Oz took several hours before releasing a statement on the ruling; his opponent, Fetterman, came out with one almost immediately.
But Mastriano will be capitalizing on the issue and reaffirming his support for his "heartbeat" bill, Bob said.
"(Mastriano) won't shy away from discussing (anti-abortion bills) and will try to respond to Democrats' focus by going all-in on his support for that bill," Bob added.
How Oz will navigate the issue, Bob said, is still to be seen.
"(Mastriano) is very strong in his views, and it seems like Oz is maybe a little bit less," Bob said. "He will not be able to escape it, I'm sure."
A Democratic swing?
To Mikus and Bob, the Supreme Court ruling likely turned moderate and independent voters who had been considering voting for a Republican in November to now vote for a Democrat.
"(Abortion) wasn't a voting issue because people hadn't thought or dreamed that abortion could end. The issue just got real for a lot of voters, especially women, and I think it's going to give Democrats a considerable boost," Mikus said.
Ending abortion has been a voting issue for Republicans for decades, Bob noted.
In 2020's record-high turnout election, Trump was the "compelling energy" that drew voters to the polls, whether to vote for or against him. Abortion likely will serve the same role in this election, said Jennie Sweet-Cushman, a political science professor at Chatham University.
The issue will motivate engaged Democrats, Sweet-Cushman said. And it likely will motivate engaged Republicans just as much.
But will it actually motivate registered voters who don't usually cast a ballot?
"I've seen no evidence that there really is anything that does that," Sweet-Cushman said.
The Pennsylvania safety net
Kelly Davis, executive director of a reproductive justice organization, counters that abortion access is a motivating issue for Black women and gender-expansive people — powerful voting blocs in the state.
Davis leads New Voices for Reproductive Justice, a nonprofit that advocates for abortion access and reproductive health care for Black women and gender-expansive people in Pennsylvania and Ohio. The organization, based in Pittsburgh, already is working to help Ohioans who had an abortion scheduled that likely won't happen now, as Ohio's abortion ban will soon go into effect.
"Pennsylvania is part of a safety net," Davis said. "But even safety nets, if they're not shored up, can break."
New Voices will be mobilizing voters and helping people who don't usually vote to cast ballots, Davis said.
The group will support Shapiro, who "at least wants to keep the status quo" of abortion access in Pennsylvania, Davis said.
But "Pennsylvania is not a utopia," Davis added, criticizing Pennsylvania's current abortion law that requires a person to visit on two occasions before receiving an abortion.
