For the third consecutive offseason, Aaron Rodgers is flirting with leaving the Packers.
This winter, it seems a breakup is finally coming.
On Monday night, it was reported Rodgers and the Jets were conversing. And on Tuesday, New York’s brass was on a flight to California to meet with Rodgers in person. And after that meeting, the Jets are optimistic that they are close to landing Rodgers, ESPN’s Dianna Russini reported Thursday morning.
For all the world, this is an easy match. Green Bay needs to see what it has in fourth-year quarterback Jordan Love, and can simultaneously jump-start a rebuild by trading Rodgers. The Jets would have their best quarterback since Joe Namath, giving them a chance to get into the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
But nothing in the NFL is easy. And for New York to acquire Rodgers, it’ll take a combination of trade capital, cash and cap space to make a deal work.
On the financial side, the Jets would have a 2023 cap hit of $15.79 million before absorbing numbers of $32.54 million, $51.14 million and $45.29 million, respectively, over the following three seasons. However, Rodgers is also due a balloon payment of $58.3 million before the ’23 regular season starts.
Green Bay would eat $40.3 million in dead money if it moves Rodgers pre–June 1. It can also split the dead cap hit over two years if a deal was worked out post–June 1.
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Sports Illustrated spoke with three league sources with pro personnel experience and asked them a simple question: If you were Jets general manager Joe Douglas, what would you offer? Here are their answers.
Trade proposal No. 1
Packers pay none of Rodgers’s balloon payment: 2023 fifth-round pick (conditional based on playoff advancement) and ’24 third-round pick (conditional)
Packers pay none of Rodgers’s balloon payment: 2023 fifth-round pick and ’24 third-round pick (conditional based on playoff advancement)
“Obviously, their willingness to pay to acquire picks, in my opinion, is kind of what it comes down to,” says one former NFL general manager. “I’ll be honest; I don’t think there are a lot of other suitors. I don’t know that there are a lot of other teams willing to do anything or else they would have met with other teams. … Maybe there’s some team on the West Coast that hasn’t identified itself. I think, obviously, Aaron would love to stay out West.”
When presented with the idea of Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst balking at a low offer, the source stated the Jets could walk away and go to a secondary plan—with a caveat.
“Everybody has to have other options; otherwise they’re making bad deals. If the Jets are that desperate and Gutekunst can play that card, God bless him. I don’t know that the Jets have ever proved to be great negotiators of any of this stuff, so time will tell. My guess is they will overpay. I wouldn’t. I just don’t know who we’re bidding against.”
This source also felt Rodgers would be wise to force Green Bay into sending a mid-round pick to New York as well. His belief is Rodgers could force the issue by saying he won’t agree to a deal without bringing something of value to the Jets, improving his situation in East Rutherford.
“I would be reluctant to give the No. 13 pick. I know Jets fans think this is the greatest thing in the world, but with that 13th pick, we should be getting a player who ought to play eight to 10 years. I understand the desperation and all that, but I think it comes down to how much are you willing to sell your soul to the devil?”
Trade proposal No. 2
Offer: Multiple mid- and late-round picks over a three-year period
“It’s a cost-benefit analysis,” says one former high-ranking front-office exec. “What’s the cost to me, and what is the prospective benefit?”
From this source’s viewpoint, the question is less about the money and more about Rodgers’s interest level. After years of waffling on his dedication to the Packers, there’s a fair question of how much the future first-ballot Hall of Famer will commit to his new surroundings.
The notion of being the best possible teammate and leader was paramount when asked whether the source would give up a first-round pick for Rodgers in any scenario.
“I would try like hell not to, but I might, depending on how my meeting with Aaron went, what his indication is,” the source says. “Is he all in? Is he going to participate in an offseason program? Is he going to come and do in New York what he didn’t do last year in Green Bay? If he’s not going to commit, to being all in for multiple years, participating in voluntary programs, getting on the same page with his receivers, then no I’m not.”
Unlike the others SI spoke to for this piece, the former executive doesn’t believe the offer made by Douglas should be heavily impacted by how much financial help Green Bay provides.
“I think the cash, and the cap offers, are two entirely different things,” the source says. “So when people say, ‘Well, if they’re willing to help out with the cash, I’m going to give them more in draft compensation,’ I don’t think those two things have much to do with one another. I want [the Packers] to help out with the cash, I absolutely do, but I don’t know how much that’s going to impact what I’m giving up in terms of draft picks. … But I recognize I’m in a very small minority, maybe a minority of one, in that regard.”
Trade proposal No. 3
Dan Powers/USA Today Sports
Offer: 2023 third-round pick and ’24 third-rounder (conditional based on financial help with balloon payment)
“I’ve heard Joe [Douglas] say he’s not paying that whole option,” says a current league source with front-office experience. “The more the Packers absorb, the more the compensation goes, right? Because if you’re the Packers, you’re trading the guy that’s just going to ruin your cap. The more you have to eat, you better get more in return.”
The source believes Green Bay will use 2023 to clear its books, allowing Rodgers’s dead money to wash off its cap while positioning itself well for the ’24 rookie quarterback class, headlined by USC’s Caleb Williams and Drake Maye of North Carolina.
To this point, Green Bay would be wise to target 2024 draft capital, giving it more ammunition to either trade up should Love be underwhelming in ’23. And, if Love plays well, the Packers then have their quarterback of the future and a horde of assets to help support him.
From that perspective, Gutekunst could get better value by waiting a year, while also strengthening his long-term position in multiple ways.
Still, Gutekunst is believed to be in a hard spot to drive talks. Every source spoken to believes the Jets are in prime position. Typically, the team holding the superstar signal-caller drives the price. Yet this is different because Rodgers is aging, expensive and without multiple known suitors.
“The Jets have tremendous leverage over the Packers,” the source says. “The Packers are ready to move on. If the Jets say, ‘You know what, we’re not going to do it; we’re moving on,’ what do the Packers do? They’re stuck. They have a guy they really don’t want. … I think there’s more pressure on Green Bay to make this trade than the Jets, and the fact that Lamar [Jackson] is out there, at least the threat of going after Lamar gives them even more leverage.”
Jackson is an intriguing point. While teams were lining up Tuesday to leak their disinterest in the Ravens’ star quarterback, the Jets weren’t one of them.
And although New York doesn’t currently have the cap space to offer Jackson an enormous, fully guaranteed deal, Douglas could create $25.9 million with the releases of edge rusher Carl Lawson and receiver Corey Davis.
For the Packers, it might be time to accept their self-made reality.
“Last year, the Broncos had a triple whammy,” the source says. “Head coach, trade and contract for [Russell] Wilson. Triple whammy. This might be worse. What the Packers did with Aaron might be worse. They have so handcuffed themselves.”
